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Serie A

Referee: Davide Massa

Juventus

S S S S U

2–1

Full-time

Milan

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 69%

81%

56%

Points per game

2,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

59%

52%

Both score Ø 50%

48%

52%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

58% Possession 42%

24 Shots 6

12 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 10

10 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Juventus 1. · Milan 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	27	22	1	4	+38	67
2	Roma	27	19	2	6	+33	59
3	Napoli	27	17	6	4	+32	57
4	Lazio	27	16	5	6	+18	53
5	Atalanta	27	16	4	7	+16	52
6	Inter	27	16	3	8	+18	51
7	Milan	27	15	5	7	+10	50
8	Fiorentina	27	11	9	7	+7	42
9	Torino	27	10	9	8	+8	39
10	Sampdoria	27	10	8	9	+1	38
11	Chievo	27	10	5	12	-8	35
12	Sassuolo	27	9	4	14	-7	31
13	Cagliari	27	9	4	14	-21	31
14	Udinese	27	8	6	13	-7	30
15	Genoa	27	7	8	12	-11	29
16	Bologna	27	7	7	13	-17	28
17	Empoli	27	5	7	15	-24	22
18	Palermo	27	3	6	18	-30	15
19	Crotone	27	3	5	19	-24	14
20	Pescara	27	2	6	19	-32	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	14	0	0	+29	42
2	Roma	13	12	0	1	+27	36
3	Napoli	14	9	3	2	+14	30
4	Inter	13	9	2	2	+16	29
5	Lazio	14	9	2	3	+12	29
6	Milan	14	9	2	3	+8	29
7	Torino	13	8	4	1	+15	28
8	Sampdoria	14	8	4	2	+9	28
9	Atalanta	13	9	1	3	+8	28
10	Fiorentina	13	6	7	0	+8	25
11	Cagliari	13	7	2	4	-2	23
12	Chievo	14	5	4	5	-4	19
13	Genoa	13	4	6	3	+5	18
14	Udinese	14	5	3	6	+0	18
15	Bologna	14	5	2	7	-6	17
16	Sassuolo	13	5	1	7	-4	16
17	Empoli	14	4	3	7	-11	15
18	Crotone	14	3	3	8	-7	12
19	Pescara	13	1	4	8	-13	7
20	Palermo	13	1	2	10	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	13	8	3	2	+18	27
2	Juventus	13	8	1	4	+9	25
3	Atalanta	14	7	3	4	+8	24
4	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+6	24
5	Roma	14	7	2	5	+6	23
6	Inter	14	7	1	6	+2	22
7	Milan	13	6	3	4	+2	21
8	Fiorentina	14	5	2	7	-1	17
9	Chievo	13	5	1	7	-4	16
10	Sassuolo	14	4	3	7	-3	15
11	Udinese	13	3	3	7	-7	12
12	Torino	14	2	5	7	-7	11
13	Bologna	13	2	5	6	-11	11
14	Genoa	14	3	2	9	-16	11
15	Sampdoria	13	2	4	7	-8	10
16	Palermo	14	2	4	8	-14	10
17	Cagliari	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Empoli	13	1	4	8	-13	7
19	Pescara	14	1	2	11	-19	5
20	Crotone	13	0	2	11	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.