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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni

Juventus

S S S S U

3–1

Full-time

Milan

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Juventus Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,3

2,5

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

0,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,5

This season — Serie A · 29/28 matches

Win Ø 69%

83%

54%

Points per game

2,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

52%

50%

Both score Ø 39%

31%

46%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%

7 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Juventus 1. · Milan 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	29	24	3	2	+52	75
2	Napoli	30	23	5	2	+44	74
3	Roma	30	18	6	6	+26	60
4	Inter	29	16	10	3	+29	58
5	Lazio	30	17	6	7	+34	57
6	Milan	28	15	5	8	+9	50
7	Atalanta	29	13	8	8	+14	47
8	Fiorentina	29	12	8	9	+7	44
9	Sampdoria	29	13	5	11	+3	44
10	Torino	29	9	12	8	+4	39
11	Bologna	30	10	5	15	-7	35
12	Udinese	29	10	3	16	-6	33
13	Genoa	29	8	7	14	-8	31
14	Cagliari	29	8	5	16	-21	29
15	Chievo	29	7	7	15	-21	28
16	Sassuolo	29	7	7	15	-30	28
17	Spal	30	5	11	14	-22	26
18	Crotone	29	6	6	17	-25	24
19	Verona	29	6	4	19	-34	22
20	Benevento	29	3	1	25	-48	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	12	1	1	+30	37
2	Napoli	15	11	2	2	+21	35
3	Inter	16	10	5	1	+19	35
4	Sampdoria	15	10	2	3	+14	32
5	Roma	15	9	1	5	+10	28
6	Lazio	15	8	3	4	+21	27
7	Milan	13	8	2	3	+3	26
8	Atalanta	14	7	4	3	+10	25
9	Fiorentina	15	7	4	4	+4	25
10	Torino	14	5	5	4	+7	20
11	Bologna	16	5	4	7	-1	19
12	Chievo	14	5	4	5	-3	19
13	Udinese	14	5	2	7	+1	17
14	Crotone	15	4	4	7	-6	16
15	Spal	14	3	6	5	-8	15
16	Cagliari	15	4	2	9	-13	14
17	Verona	15	4	1	10	-18	13
18	Genoa	14	3	3	8	-6	12
19	Sassuolo	15	2	6	7	-12	12
20	Benevento	14	3	1	10	-16	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	15	12	3	0	+23	39
2	Juventus	15	12	2	1	+22	38
3	Roma	15	9	5	1	+16	32
4	Lazio	15	9	3	3	+13	30
5	Milan	15	7	3	5	+6	24
6	Inter	13	6	5	2	+10	23
7	Atalanta	15	6	4	5	+4	22
8	Fiorentina	14	5	4	5	+3	19
9	Genoa	15	5	4	6	-2	19
10	Torino	15	4	7	4	-3	19
11	Bologna	14	5	1	8	-6	16
12	Udinese	15	5	1	9	-7	16
13	Sassuolo	14	5	1	8	-18	16
14	Cagliari	14	4	3	7	-8	15
15	Sampdoria	14	3	3	8	-11	12
16	Spal	16	2	5	9	-14	11
17	Verona	14	2	3	9	-16	9
18	Chievo	15	2	3	10	-18	9
19	Crotone	14	2	2	10	-19	8
20	Benevento	15	0	0	15	-32	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.