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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Milan

T T S U T

1–0

Full-time

Spal

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,3

This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

33%

22%

Points per game

1,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

56%

44%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

10 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 6

4 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 21

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 13. · Spal 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	8	2	0	+9	26
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	+12	25
3	Atalanta	10	6	3	1	+14	21
4	Roma	10	5	4	1	+7	19
5	Lazio	10	5	3	2	+12	18
6	Napoli	10	5	3	2	+7	18
7	Cagliari	10	5	3	2	+6	18
8	Fiorentina	10	4	3	3	+2	15
9	Parma	10	4	1	5	+1	13
10	Bologna	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Verona	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Torino	10	3	2	5	-5	11
13	Milan	9	3	1	5	-4	10
14	Udinese	10	3	1	6	-12	10
15	Sassuolo	9	3	0	6	-2	9
16	Lecce	10	2	3	5	-8	9
17	Genoa	10	2	2	6	-10	8
18	Brescia	9	2	1	6	-5	7
19	Spal	9	2	1	6	-9	7
20	Sampdoria	10	1	2	7	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	5	0	0	+6	15
2	Lazio	5	3	2	0	+10	11
3	Inter	5	3	1	1	+5	10
4	Napoli	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Cagliari	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Parma	6	3	0	3	+2	9
7	Udinese	6	3	0	3	-4	9
8	Roma	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Torino	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Atalanta	4	2	1	1	+7	7
11	Genoa	5	2	1	2	+1	7
12	Bologna	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Fiorentina	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Spal	5	2	1	2	-1	7
15	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	+1	6
16	Verona	5	1	2	2	+0	5
17	Sampdoria	5	1	2	2	-4	5
18	Milan	4	1	1	2	-3	4
19	Brescia	4	0	1	3	-3	1
20	Lecce	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	5	5	0	0	+7	15
2	Atalanta	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	Roma	5	3	2	0	+6	11
4	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+3	11
5	Napoli	5	2	2	1	+3	8
6	Cagliari	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Fiorentina	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Lecce	6	2	2	2	-3	8
9	Lazio	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Verona	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Milan	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Brescia	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Sassuolo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Torino	5	1	0	4	-6	3
17	Udinese	4	0	1	3	-8	1
18	Genoa	5	0	1	4	-11	1
19	Spal	4	0	0	4	-8	0
20	Sampdoria	5	0	0	5	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.