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La Liga

Referee: Juan Martínez

Real Madrid

U T T S T

1–0

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,8

1,2

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

2,2

0,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 57%

65%

48%

Points per game

2,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

61%

42%

Both score Ø 60%

58%

61%

Average goals

3,1

2,4

Scored

2,1

1,6

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,51 xG 0,19

73% Possession 27%

22 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

14 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Ath Bilbao 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	32	23	4	5	+56	+40.0	73
2	Real Madrid	31	20	6	5	+33	+27.1	66
3	Ath Madrid	32	18	9	5	+26	+22.5	63
4	Ath Bilbao	31	15	12	4	+24	+16.5	57
5	Villarreal	31	14	10	7	+13	+19.5	52
6	Betis	31	13	9	9	+3	+9.2	48
7	Mallorca	32	12	8	12	-6	+1.1	44
8	Celta	32	12	7	13	-2	+9.4	43
9	Sociedad	32	12	6	14	-4	+0.4	42
10	Vallecano	32	10	11	11	-4	-3.0	41
11	Osasuna	32	9	14	9	-7	-8.3	41
12	Getafe	32	10	9	13	+2	-5.7	39
13	Espanol	31	10	8	13	-6	-20.6	38
14	Valencia	32	9	11	12	-12	-8.7	38
15	Sevilla	32	9	10	13	-8	-8.6	37
16	Girona	31	9	7	15	-10	-4.0	34
17	Las Palmas	32	8	8	16	-14	-28.1	32
18	Alaves	32	7	10	15	-12	-3.7	31
19	Leganes	32	6	11	15	-19	-24.8	29
20	Valladolid	32	4	4	24	-53	-30.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	12	1	3	+31	+29.9	37
2	Real Madrid	15	12	1	2	+21	+22.2	37
3	Ath Madrid	16	11	4	1	+17	+20.7	37
4	Ath Bilbao	16	9	6	1	+20	+12.9	33
5	Celta	16	9	3	4	+8	+6.4	30
6	Betis	16	8	5	3	+7	+15.0	29
7	Osasuna	16	7	6	3	+5	+3.4	27
8	Valencia	16	8	3	5	+4	+2.9	27
9	Espanol	16	7	6	3	+4	-5.9	27
10	Mallorca	17	6	6	5	-1	-0.4	24
11	Sociedad	16	7	2	7	+0	+4.4	23
12	Villarreal	15	5	7	3	+8	+10.2	22
13	Girona	15	6	3	6	+3	+6.5	21
14	Vallecano	16	5	6	5	-3	+4.5	21
15	Sevilla	16	5	5	6	-5	-0.8	20
16	Getafe	16	4	7	5	+0	+2.5	19
17	Leganes	16	5	3	8	-8	-9.9	18
18	Las Palmas	16	4	5	7	-5	-7.0	17
19	Alaves	15	4	4	7	-5	+0.5	16
20	Valladolid	16	3	4	9	-18	-8.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	11	3	2	+25	+10.1	36
2	Villarreal	16	9	3	4	+5	+9.3	30
3	Real Madrid	16	8	5	3	+12	+4.9	29
4	Ath Madrid	16	7	5	4	+9	+1.9	26
5	Ath Bilbao	15	6	6	3	+4	+3.6	24
6	Getafe	16	6	2	8	+2	-8.2	20
7	Vallecano	16	5	5	6	-1	-7.6	20
8	Mallorca	15	6	2	7	-5	+1.5	20
9	Betis	15	5	4	6	-4	-5.9	19
10	Sociedad	16	5	4	7	-4	-4.0	19
11	Sevilla	16	4	5	7	-3	-7.8	17
12	Alaves	17	3	6	8	-7	-4.2	15
13	Las Palmas	16	4	3	9	-9	-21.0	15
14	Osasuna	16	2	8	6	-12	-11.6	14
15	Celta	16	3	4	9	-10	+3.0	13
16	Girona	16	3	4	9	-13	-10.5	13
17	Espanol	15	3	2	10	-10	-14.8	11
18	Leganes	16	1	8	7	-11	-14.8	11
19	Valencia	16	1	8	7	-16	-11.7	11
20	Valladolid	16	1	0	15	-35	-21.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.