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Champions League
Referee: M Oliver
Olympiakos
S S U S S
3–4
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Olympiakos Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,2
Scored
2,2
1,5
Conceded
0,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 38%
0%
75%
Points per game
0,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
25%
50%
Both score Ø 38%
50%
25%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
0,5
2,0
Conceded
2,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
-1,8
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

1,69 xG 1,68
41% Possession 59%
18 Shots 15
8 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 5
1 Offside 4
12 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Olympiakos Real Madrid
1–0 Chiquinho ⚽
A. El Kaabi
8′
22′
⚽ K. Mbappe 1–1
Vinicius Junior
23′
🟨 Eduardo Camavinga
24′
⚽ K. Mbappe 1–2
A. Guler
M. Taremi 🔁
↦ Chiquinho
28′
29′
⚽ K. Mbappe 1–3
E. Camavinga
33′
ℹ️ Vinícius Júnior
VAR: Goal cancelled
Francisco Ortega 🟨
40′
Half-time 1–3
S. Hezze 🔁
↦ D. Garcia
46′
46′
🔁 D. Ceballos
↦ E. Camavinga
2–3 M. Taremi ⚽
S. Hezze
52′
56′
🟨 Arda Güler
60′
⚽ K. Mbappe 2–4
Vinicius Junior
61′
🔁 J. Bellingham
↦ A. Guler
G. Biancone 🔁
↦ L. Pirola
62′
Costinha 🔁
↦ Rodinei
71′
G. Strefezza 🔁
↦ D. Podence
71′
73′
🔁 B. Diaz
↦ R. Asencio
3–4 A. El Kaabi ⚽
G. Strefezza
81′
90′
🔁 F. Garcia
↦ Vinicius Junior
Full-time 3–4

Line-ups

Olympiakos

4-2-3-1
88 K. Tzolakis G
23 Rodinei D
45 P. Retsos D
5 L. Pirola D
3 F. Ortega D
14 D. Garcia M
96 C. Mouzakitis M
10 G. Martins M
22 Chiquinho M
56 D. Podence M
9 A. El Kaabi F
Bench (12)
31 N. Botis
4 G. Biancone
6 A. Kalogeropoulos
8 D. Nascimento
11 R. Yaremchuk
16 L. Scipioni
20 Costinha
27 G. Strefezza
32 S. Hezze
70 B. Onyemaechi
80 S. Pnevmonidis
99 M. Taremi

Coach: Luis Mendilibar Jose

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1
13 A. Lunin G
12 T. Alexander-Arnold D
17 R. Asencio D
18 A. Carreras D
23 F. Mendy D
14 A. Tchouameni M
6 E. Camavinga M
8 F. Valverde M
15 A. Guler M
7 Vinicius Junior M
10 K. Mbappe F
Bench (9)
26 Fran
29 J. Navarro Jimenez
5 J. Bellingham
9 Endrick
11 Rodrygo
16 G. Garcia
19 D. Ceballos
20 F. Garcia
21 B. Diaz

Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.