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Champions League
Referee: I Kruzliak
Newcastle
T S S S T
2–0
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,7
Scored
2,7
1,3
Conceded
0,7
2,3
Goal diff per game
+2,0
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,20 xG 0,58
59% Possession 41%
8 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 5
3 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 13
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Newcastle Ath Bilbao
1–0 D. Burn ⚽
K. Trippier
11′
J. Murphy 🔁
↦ A. Gordon
41′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 Joelinton ⚽
H. Barnes
49′
57′
🟨 Aitor Paredes
L. Hall 🔁
↦ D. Burn
65′
A. Elanga 🔁
↦ H. Barnes
65′
L. Miley 🔁
↦ Bruno Guimaraes
65′
69′
🟨 Jesús Areso
70′
🔁 N. Serrano
↦ R. Navarro
70′
🔁 S. Sanchez
↦ M. Jauregizar
78′
🔁 A. Gorosabel
↦ J. Areso
78′
🔁 A. Hierro
↦ U. Gomez
81′
🔁 I. Ruiz de Galarreta
↦ A. Rego
J. Ramsey 🔁
↦ N. Woltemade
83′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-3-3
1 N. Pope G
2 K. Trippier D
12 M. Thiaw D
4 S. Botman D
33 D. Burn D
39 Bruno Guimaraes M
8 S. Tonali M
7 Joelinton M
11 H. Barnes F
27 N. Woltemade F
10 A. Gordon F
Bench (12)
31 M. Thompson
32 A. Ramsdale
3 L. Hall
5 F. Schar
17 E. Krafth
18 W. Osula
20 A. Elanga
23 J. Murphy
28 J. Willock
37 A. Murphy
41 J. Ramsey
67 L. Miley

Coach: Eddie Howe

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
1 U. Simon G
12 J. Areso D
3 D. Vivian D
4 A. Paredes D
19 A. Boiro D
30 A. Rego M
18 M. Jauregizar M
23 R. Navarro M
6 M. Vesga M
7 A. Berenguer M
20 U. Gomez F
Bench (11)
26 M. Santos
27 A. Padilla
2 A. Gorosabel
14 A. Laporte
15 I. Lekue
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta
22 N. Serrano
31 A. Hierro
35 I. Sanchez
38 A. Izagirre Cestona
44 S. Sanchez

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kruzliak · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.