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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Ath Madrid

U U S T U

3–2

Full-time

Vallecano

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 20%

20%

Both score Ø 70%

80%

60%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,61 xG 1,60

61% Possession 39%

20 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 6

3 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 12. · Vallecano 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	6	6	0	0	+11	+7.3	18
2	Barcelona	5	4	1	0	+13	+7.2	13
3	Villarreal	6	4	1	1	+7	+5.5	13
4	Espanol	6	3	2	1	+1	+2.6	11
5	Ath Bilbao	6	3	1	2	+0	+3.9	10
6	Getafe	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.3	10
7	Elche	5	2	3	0	+3	-1.3	9
8	Betis	6	2	3	1	+2	+4.0	9
9	Alaves	6	2	2	2	+0	-0.8	8
10	Valencia	6	2	2	2	-2	-3.0	8
11	Sevilla	6	2	1	3	+0	-4.9	7
12	Ath Madrid	5	1	3	1	+1	+2.8	6
13	Osasuna	5	2	0	3	+0	-0.9	6
14	Vallecano	5	1	2	2	-1	+1.4	5
15	Celta	6	0	5	1	-2	+1.4	5
16	Levante	6	1	1	4	-3	-1.7	4
17	Oviedo	5	1	0	4	-7	-5.1	3
18	Sociedad	5	0	2	3	-4	-3.1	2
19	Mallorca	5	0	2	3	-5	-5.0	2
20	Girona	6	0	2	4	-13	-9.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Espanol	4	3	1	0	+3	+2.1	10
2	Villarreal	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.4	9
3	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+4	+2.6	9
4	Valencia	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.1	7
5	Elche	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.7	7
6	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+1	+4.8	7
7	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+9	+5.5	6
8	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.9	6
9	Betis	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.9	6
10	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.1	4
11	Getafe	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.0	4
12	Alaves	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.7	4
13	Celta	4	0	3	1	-2	+1.6	3
14	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.8	3
15	Vallecano	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
16	Mallorca	3	0	2	1	-3	-3.6	2
17	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1
18	Sevilla	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.7	1
19	Levante	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.5	1
20	Girona	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+7	+4.7	9
2	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.7	7
3	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+2	-3.2	6
4	Getafe	4	2	0	2	-3	-1.3	6
5	Alaves	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.5	4
6	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.1	4
7	Levante	3	1	0	2	+1	+1.9	3
8	Betis	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.1	3
9	Vallecano	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.2	3
10	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.9	3
11	Elche	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
12	Celta	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
13	Ath Madrid	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.7	2
14	Girona	3	0	2	1	-5	-4.7	2
15	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
16	Sociedad	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.2	1
17	Valencia	3	0	1	2	-7	-6.1	1
18	Mallorca	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.3	0
19	Osasuna	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.9	0
20	Oviedo	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.