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League Cup

Referee: Andrew Kitchen

Port Vale

T T T S S

0–2

Full-time

Arsenal

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Port Vale Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

2,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

19% Possession 81%

3 Shots 11

0 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cardiff	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.3	9
2	Wrexham	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.8	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.6	7
4	Grimsby	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
5	Wycombe	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.4	7
6	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.5	7
7	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+12	–	6
8	Doncaster	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
9	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
10	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
11	Cambridge United	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.1	6
12	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
13	Lincoln	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.8	6
14	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
15	Bradford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
16	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
17	Reading	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.3	6
18	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
19	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	–	4
20	Plymouth	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
21	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
22	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
23	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
24	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
25	Stockport County	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
26	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
27	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
28	Charlton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
29	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
30	Preston	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
31	Everton	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
32	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
33	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
34	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
35	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
36	Cheltenham	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.5	3
37	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.9	3
38	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
39	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
40	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
41	Huddersfield	3	0	2	1	-2	+1.1	2
42	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
43	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
44	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
45	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
46	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
47	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
50	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
54	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
55	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
56	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
57	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
58	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
59	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
60	Newport County	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
61	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
62	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
63	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
64	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
66	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
67	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
68	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
69	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
70	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
71	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
72	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
73	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
74	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
75	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
76	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
77	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
78	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
79	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
80	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
81	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
82	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
83	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
84	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
85	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
86	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
87	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
88	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
89	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
90	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
91	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.6	7
2	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
3	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
4	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
5	Accrington ST	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
6	Wigan	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
7	Wrexham	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
8	Grimsby	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.5	4
9	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-5	-0.5	4
10	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
11	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
12	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
13	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
14	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
15	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
16	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
17	Cheltenham	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
18	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
19	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
20	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
21	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
22	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
23	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
24	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
25	Oxford	2	1	0	1	-5	+0.2	3
26	Bromley	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
27	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
28	Barnet	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
29	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
31	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
35	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
36	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
37	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.1	1
38	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.6	1
39	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
41	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
42	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
43	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
45	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
46	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
47	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
48	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
49	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
50	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.8	0
51	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
52	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
53	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.1	0
54	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
55	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wycombe	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.4	7
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+12	–	6
3	Doncaster	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.1	6
4	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
5	Lincoln	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.8	6
6	Port Vale	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
7	Bradford	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.7	6
8	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
9	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
10	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Wrexham	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
12	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
13	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
14	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
15	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
17	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
18	Mansfield Town	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
19	Reading	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	3
20	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
21	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
22	Fleetwood Town	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
23	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
24	Newport County	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
25	Man United	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
26	Aston Villa	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
27	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
28	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
31	Burton Albion	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
33	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
34	AFC Wimbledon	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
35	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
36	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
37	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
38	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
39	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
40	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
42	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
43	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
44	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
45	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
46	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
47	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
48	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
49	Oldham	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
50	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
51	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
52	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
53	Everton	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
54	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
55	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
56	Exeter City	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
57	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.