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La Liga
Referee: Pablo González
Ath Madrid
U T S S T
3–0
Full-time
Vallecano
U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Vallecano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 44%
56%
31%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 43%
41%
44%
Both score Ø 57%
50%
63%
Average goals
2,5
2,3
Scored
1,7
1,1
Conceded
0,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,53 xG 0,73
42% Possession 58%
10 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 3
2 Offside 3
8 Free kicks against 15
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Madrid 3. · Vallecano 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 33 24 4 5 +57 +43.2 76
2 Real Madrid 33 22 6 5 +35 +27.6 72
3 Ath Madrid 32 18 9 5 +26 +22.5 63
4 Ath Bilbao 33 16 12 5 +24 +16.2 60
5 Villarreal 32 14 10 8 +10 +16.8 52
6 Betis 32 14 9 9 +5 +9.8 51
7 Celta 33 13 7 13 +1 +12.1 46
8 Osasuna 33 10 14 9 -6 -8.7 44
9 Mallorca 33 12 8 13 -7 -2.1 44
10 Sociedad 33 12 6 15 -5 +0.7 42
11 Vallecano 32 10 11 11 -4 -3.0 41
12 Getafe 33 10 9 14 +1 -4.9 39
13 Espanol 32 10 9 13 -6 -21.2 39
14 Valencia 33 9 12 12 -12 -8.1 39
15 Sevilla 33 9 10 14 -9 -8.2 37
16 Girona 33 9 8 16 -12 -4.4 35
17 Alaves 33 8 10 15 -11 -4.0 34
18 Las Palmas 33 8 8 17 -15 -29.1 32
19 Leganes 33 6 12 15 -19 -25.0 30
20 Valladolid 32 4 4 24 -53 -30.2 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Madrid Vallecano
1–0 A. Sørloth
G. Simeone
3′
2–0 C. Gallagher
R. De Paul
45′
Half-time 2–0
A. Griezmann 🔁
↦ A. Sørloth
61′
66′
🟨 Andrei Rațiu
N. Molina 🔁
↦ G. Simeone
67′
68′
🔁 Gerard Gumbau
↦ Óscar Valentín
68′
🔁 Jorge de Frutos
↦ Unai López
68′
🔁 Pep Chavarría
↦ A. Espino
76′
🔁 Sergi Guardiola
↦ Randy Nteka
3–0 J. Alvarez
A. Griezmann
77′
79′
🟨 Augusto Batalla
Koke 🔁
↦ R. De Paul
81′
César Azpilicueta 🔁
↦ C. Gallagher
81′
Samuel Lino 🔁
↦ Javi Galán
81′
83′
🔁 Adri Embarba
↦ Álvaro García
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 Marcos Llorente D
24 Robin Le Normand D
15 C. Lenglet D
21 Javi Galán D
22 G. Simeone M
5 R. De Paul M
8 Pablo Barrios M
4 C. Gallagher M
9 A. Sørloth F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (12)
7 A. Griezmann
16 N. Molina
6 Koke
3 César Azpilicueta
12 Samuel Lino
20 A. Witsel
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
10 Á. Correa
23 Reinildo
1 J. Musso
11 T. Lemar
2 J. Giménez

Coach: D. Simeone

Vallecano

4-2-3-1
13 A. Batalla G
2 A. Rațiu D
24 F. Lejeune D
6 P. Ciss D
22 A. Espino D
17 Unai López M
23 Óscar Valentín M
7 Isi Palazón M
4 Pedro Díaz M
18 Álvaro García M
11 Randy Nteka F
Bench (12)
15 Gerard Gumbau
19 Jorge de Frutos
3 Pep Chavarría
12 Sergi Guardiola
21 Adri Embarba
26 Marco de las Sías
8 Ó. Trejo
9 Raúl de Tomás
27 Pelayo Fernández
5 Aridane Hernández
1 Dani Cárdenas
20 I. Balliu

Coach: Iñigo Pérez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,55
U
4,03
B
6,28
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,02
U2,5
1,81
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Pablo González · 106 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
29,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.