La Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Ath Madrid
Vallecano
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 2–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
33 | 24 | 4 | 5 | +57 | +43.2 | 76 |
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
33 | 22 | 6 | 5 | +35 | +27.6 | 72 |
| 3 |
Ath Madrid
|
32 | 18 | 9 | 5 | +26 | +22.5 | 63 |
| 4 |
Ath Bilbao
|
33 | 16 | 12 | 5 | +24 | +16.2 | 60 |
| 5 |
Villarreal
|
32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | +10 | +16.8 | 52 |
| 6 |
Betis
|
32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | +5 | +9.8 | 51 |
| 7 |
Celta
|
33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | +1 | +12.1 | 46 |
| 8 |
Osasuna
|
33 | 10 | 14 | 9 | -6 | -8.7 | 44 |
| 9 |
Mallorca
|
33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | -7 | -2.1 | 44 |
| 10 |
Sociedad
|
33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | -5 | +0.7 | 42 |
| 11 |
Vallecano
|
32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | -4 | -3.0 | 41 |
| 12 |
Getafe
|
33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | +1 | -4.9 | 39 |
| 13 |
Espanol
|
32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -6 | -21.2 | 39 |
| 14 |
Valencia
|
33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | -12 | -8.1 | 39 |
| 15 |
Sevilla
|
33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | -9 | -8.2 | 37 |
| 16 |
Girona
|
33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | -12 | -4.4 | 35 |
| 17 |
Alaves
|
33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | -11 | -4.0 | 34 |
| 18 |
Las Palmas
|
33 | 8 | 8 | 17 | -15 | -29.1 | 32 |
| 19 |
Leganes
|
33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | -19 | -25.0 | 30 |
| 20 |
Valladolid
|
32 | 4 | 4 | 24 | -53 | -30.2 | 16 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
J. Oblak
G
Marcos Llorente
D
Robin Le Normand
D
C. Lenglet
D
Javi Galán
D
G. Simeone
M
Pablo Barrios
M
C. Gallagher
M
A. Sørloth
F
J. Alvarez
F
Coach: D. Simeone
A. Batalla
G
A. Rațiu
D
F. Lejeune
D
P. Ciss
D
Unai López
M
Óscar Valentín
M
Isi Palazón
M
Pedro Díaz
M
Álvaro García
M
Randy Nteka
F
Coach: Iñigo Pérez
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Las Palmas
Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid
Valladolid
Sevilla
Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid
Barcelona
Espanol
Ath Madrid
Pablo González · 106 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.