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Europa League
Referee: E Eskås
Ath Bilbao
U S S T S
0–3
Full-time
Man United
U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Man United
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
1,3
3,5
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
0,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 63%
67%
58%
Points per game
2,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
50%
58%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,6
3,8
Scored
1,8
2,3
Conceded
0,8
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

1,11 xG 2,55
27% Possession 73%
9 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 5
0 Offside 4
19 Free kicks against 7
3 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 0

Match report

Ath Bilbao Man United
Unai Simón 🟨
-5′
30′
⚽ Casemiro 0–1
M. Ugarte
34′
ℹ️ Rasmus Højlund
VAR: Penalty confirmed
Daniel Vivian 🟥
35′
Yuri Berchiche 🟨
36′
37′
⚽ Bruno Fernandes 0–2
Aitor Paredes 🔁
↦ Álex Berenguer
42′
Andoni Gorosabel 🔁
↦ De Marcos
42′
45′
⚽ Bruno Fernandes 0–3
M. Ugarte
Half-time 0–3
Beñat Prados 🔁
↦ Ruíz de Galarreta
46′
Yeray Álvarez 🟨
61′
65′
🔁 M. Mount
↦ M. Ugarte
65′
🔁 M. de Ligt
↦ H. Maguire
74′
🔁 L. Shaw
↦ N. Mazraoui
77′
🟨 Mason Mount
Unai Gómez 🔁
↦ Nico Williams
79′
84′
🟨 Alejandro Garnacho
84′
🔁 K. Mainoo
↦ A. Garnacho
84′
🔁 A. Diallo
↦ P. Dorgu
Álvaro Djaló 🔁
↦ I. Williams
87′
93′
🟨 Leny Yoro
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
13 Julen Agirrezabala G
18 De Marcos D
3 Dani Vivian D
5 Yeray D
17 Yuri D
16 Ruíz de Galarreta M
23 Mikel Jauregizar M
9 I. Williams M
7 Álex Berenguer M
10 Nico Williams M
21 Maroan Sannadi F
Bench (12)
4 Aitor Paredes
2 Andoni Gorosabel
24 Beñat Prados
20 Unai Gómez
11 Álvaro Djaló
28 Peio Canales
6 Mikel Vesga
1 Unai Simón
15 Lekue
32 Adama Boiro
14 Unai Núñez
12 Gorka Guruzeta

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Man United

3-4-2-1
24 A. Onana G
2 V. Lindelöf D
5 H. Maguire D
15 L. Yoro D
3 N. Mazraoui M
18 Casemiro M
25 M. Ugarte M
13 P. Dorgu M
17 A. Garnacho F
8 Bruno Fernandes F
9 R. Højlund F
Bench (12)
7 M. Mount
4 M. de Ligt
23 L. Shaw
37 K. Mainoo
16 A. Diallo
85 B. Mantato
80 J. Kamason
55 T. Fredricson
14 C. Eriksen
22 T. Heaton
1 A. Bayındır
41 H. Amass

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Eskås · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.