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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas

Almeria

T T T U U

2–2

Full-time

Ath Madrid

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 32%

64%

Points per game

0,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

64%

60%

Both score Ø 56%

64%

48%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

2,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,40 xG 1,47

40% Possession 60%

9 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almeria 20. · Ath Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	25	19	5	1	+37	+23.3	62
2	Barcelona	26	17	6	3	+22	+31.2	57
3	Girona	25	17	5	3	+22	+7.0	56
4	Ath Madrid	25	16	3	6	+24	+16.0	51
5	Ath Bilbao	25	14	7	4	+22	+16.7	49
6	Sociedad	26	10	10	6	+9	+4.6	40
7	Betis	25	9	12	4	+3	-2.2	39
8	Valencia	25	10	6	9	+0	-1.6	36
9	Las Palmas	25	10	5	10	+0	-15.7	35
10	Getafe	26	8	10	8	-5	-8.1	34
11	Osasuna	25	9	5	11	-7	-4.3	32
12	Alaves	26	7	8	11	-7	+1.6	29
13	Villarreal	26	7	8	11	-10	-5.5	29
14	Vallecano	25	5	10	10	-11	-2.1	25
15	Sevilla	25	5	9	11	-7	-11.8	24
16	Mallorca	26	4	12	10	-11	-4.8	24
17	Celta	25	4	8	13	-10	-4.8	20
18	Cadiz	25	2	11	12	-20	-16.8	17
19	Granada	25	2	8	15	-22	-13.2	14
20	Almeria	25	0	8	17	-29	-9.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	13	12	1	0	+20	+15.9	37
2	Real Madrid	12	10	2	0	+23	+18.4	32
3	Ath Bilbao	13	10	2	1	+20	+15.7	32
4	Barcelona	14	10	1	3	+13	+16.6	31
5	Girona	12	9	2	1	+16	+6.0	29
6	Valencia	12	7	3	2	+9	+4.7	24
7	Betis	13	6	6	1	+7	+6.3	24
8	Getafe	12	7	3	2	+4	-0.9	24
9	Las Palmas	12	6	3	3	+7	-4.8	21
10	Sociedad	13	5	5	3	+4	+2.6	20
11	Alaves	13	5	3	5	-2	+5.7	18
12	Osasuna	13	5	3	5	-3	+1.4	18
13	Mallorca	13	3	7	3	+0	-1.1	16
14	Sevilla	13	3	5	5	-2	-3.5	14
15	Villarreal	13	3	4	6	-4	+3.3	13
16	Granada	13	2	6	5	-6	-3.2	12
17	Cadiz	12	2	6	4	-6	+1.3	12
18	Celta	13	2	4	7	-8	+3.3	10
19	Vallecano	12	1	6	5	-10	-2.1	9
20	Almeria	12	0	6	6	-11	+1.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	9	3	1	+14	+4.9	30
2	Girona	13	8	3	2	+6	+1.0	27
3	Barcelona	12	7	5	0	+9	+14.6	26
4	Sociedad	13	5	5	3	+5	+2.0	20
5	Ath Bilbao	12	4	5	3	+2	+1.0	17
6	Vallecano	13	4	4	5	-1	+0.0	16
7	Villarreal	13	4	4	5	-6	-8.7	16
8	Betis	12	3	6	3	-4	-8.5	15
9	Ath Madrid	12	4	2	6	+4	+0.1	14
10	Osasuna	12	4	2	6	-4	-5.7	14
11	Las Palmas	13	4	2	7	-7	-11.0	14
12	Valencia	13	3	3	7	-9	-6.3	12
13	Alaves	13	2	5	6	-5	-4.2	11
14	Celta	12	2	4	6	-2	-8.1	10
15	Sevilla	12	2	4	6	-5	-8.3	10
16	Getafe	14	1	7	6	-9	-7.2	10
17	Mallorca	13	1	5	7	-11	-3.7	8
18	Cadiz	13	0	5	8	-14	-18.1	5
19	Granada	12	0	2	10	-16	-10.0	2
20	Almeria	13	0	2	11	-18	-10.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.