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La Liga

Referee: Javier Iglesias Villanueva

Sevilla

S T T U S

1–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

2,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 41%

17%

65%

Points per game

0,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

52%

61%

Both score Ø 59%

65%

52%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,03 xG 1,55

40% Possession 60%

10 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sevilla 16. · Ath Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	24	19	4	1	+37	+23.3	61
2	Girona	24	17	5	2	+23	+6.7	56
3	Barcelona	23	15	5	3	+17	+26.9	50
4	Ath Madrid	23	15	3	5	+20	+12.8	48
5	Ath Bilbao	23	13	6	4	+21	+17.2	45
6	Betis	24	9	11	4	+3	-2.5	38
7	Sociedad	24	9	10	5	+10	+3.0	37
8	Las Palmas	24	10	5	9	+5	-13.0	35
9	Valencia	24	10	5	9	+0	-2.6	35
10	Getafe	24	8	9	7	-1	-5.0	33
11	Osasuna	24	8	5	11	-9	-5.8	29
12	Alaves	24	7	6	11	-7	+3.5	27
13	Villarreal	24	6	7	11	-12	-5.3	25
14	Vallecano	24	5	9	10	-11	-2.1	24
15	Mallorca	24	4	11	9	-10	-5.5	23
16	Sevilla	23	4	8	11	-8	-10.3	20
17	Celta	24	4	8	12	-9	-4.0	20
18	Cadiz	24	2	11	11	-18	-15.4	17
19	Granada	23	2	6	15	-22	-12.9	12
20	Almeria	23	0	6	17	-29	-9.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	12	11	1	0	+15	+13.1	34
2	Real Madrid	12	10	2	0	+23	+18.4	32
3	Ath Bilbao	12	9	2	1	+19	+16.0	29
4	Girona	12	9	2	1	+16	+6.0	29
5	Barcelona	12	9	0	3	+9	+13.1	27
6	Getafe	12	7	3	2	+4	-0.9	24
7	Valencia	11	7	2	2	+9	+3.7	23
8	Betis	12	6	5	1	+7	+6.0	23
9	Las Palmas	12	6	3	3	+7	-4.8	21
10	Sociedad	12	5	5	2	+6	+2.0	20
11	Alaves	12	5	2	5	-2	+7.4	17
12	Mallorca	12	3	7	2	+1	-0.1	16
13	Osasuna	12	4	3	5	-5	-0.0	15
14	Villarreal	12	3	3	6	-4	+2.8	12
15	Cadiz	12	2	6	4	-6	+1.3	12
16	Sevilla	12	2	5	5	-3	-2.9	11
17	Granada	12	2	5	5	-6	-3.8	11
18	Celta	12	2	4	6	-7	+4.1	10
19	Vallecano	11	1	5	5	-10	-2.1	8
20	Almeria	11	0	5	6	-11	+1.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	12	9	2	1	+14	+4.9	29
2	Girona	12	8	3	1	+7	+0.7	27
3	Barcelona	11	6	5	0	+8	+13.8	23
4	Sociedad	12	4	5	3	+4	+1.0	17
5	Ath Bilbao	11	4	4	3	+2	+1.2	16
6	Vallecano	13	4	4	5	-1	+0.0	16
7	Betis	12	3	6	3	-4	-8.5	15
8	Ath Madrid	11	4	2	5	+5	-0.4	14
9	Las Palmas	12	4	2	6	-2	-8.2	14
10	Osasuna	12	4	2	6	-4	-5.7	14
11	Villarreal	12	3	4	5	-8	-8.1	13
12	Valencia	13	3	3	7	-9	-6.3	12
13	Celta	12	2	4	6	-2	-8.1	10
14	Alaves	12	2	4	6	-5	-3.9	10
15	Getafe	12	1	6	5	-5	-4.1	9
16	Sevilla	11	2	3	6	-5	-7.3	9
17	Mallorca	12	1	4	7	-11	-5.4	7
18	Cadiz	12	0	5	7	-12	-16.7	5
19	Granada	11	0	1	10	-16	-9.1	1
20	Almeria	12	0	1	11	-18	-10.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.