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Champions League
Referee: I Kovacs
Inter
S S S S S
1–0
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,5
2,3
Scored
2,8
1,7
Conceded
0,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,2
3,8
Scored
1,3
2,8
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,30 xG 0,62
56% Possession 44%
19 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 0
7 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 2
10 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Inter Ath Madrid
Half-time 0–0
M. Arnautović 🔁
↦ M. Thuram
46′
46′
🔁 S. Savić
↦ J. Giménez
53′
🟨 Mario Hermoso
54′
🔁 Álvaro Morata
↦ Saúl
68′
🔁 Reinildo
↦ Hermoso
68′
🔁 Pablo Barrios
↦ N. Molina
D. Dumfries 🔁
↦ M. Darmian
69′
Carlos Augusto 🔁
↦ F. Dimarco
69′
D. Frattesi 🔁
↦ H. Mkhitaryan
72′
78′
🔁 Á. Correa
↦ A. Griezmann
1–0 M. Arnautović
79′
82′
🟨 Stefan Savić
84′
🟨 Álvaro Morata
Davide Frattesi 🟨
86′
A. Sánchez 🔁
↦ L. Martínez
88′
92′
🟨 Koke
Carlos Augusto 🟨
94′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Inter

3-5-2
1 Y. Sommer G
28 B. Pavard D
6 S. de Vrij D
95 A. Bastoni D
36 M. Darmian M
23 N. Barella M
20 H. Çalhanoğlu M
22 H. Mkhitaryan M
32 F. Dimarco M
9 M. Thuram F
10 L. Martínez F
Bench (12)
8 M. Arnautović
2 D. Dumfries
30 Carlos Augusto
16 D. Frattesi
70 A. Sánchez
77 E. Audero
50 A. Stanković
12 R. Di Gennaro
14 D. Klaassen
21 K. Asllani
17 T. Buchanan
31 Y. Bisseck

Coach: S. Inzaghi

Ath Madrid

3-5-2
13 J. Oblak G
20 A. Witsel D
2 J. Giménez D
22 Hermoso D
16 N. Molina M
5 R. De Paul M
6 Koke M
8 Saúl M
12 Samuel Lino M
14 Marcos Llorente F
7 A. Griezmann F
Bench (11)
15 S. Savić
19 Álvaro Morata
23 Reinildo
24 Pablo Barrios
10 Á. Correa
18 A. Vermeeren
9 M. Depay
31 Antonio Gomis
1 H. Moldovan
4 Gabriel Paulista
17 Rodrigo Riquelme

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

I Kovacs · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.