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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Valencia

T S T U S

3–1

Full-time

Villarreal

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

0,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 31%

33%

28%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

44%

72%

Both score Ø 64%

44%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,4

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,77 xG 0,75

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 10. · Villarreal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	18	14	3	1	+28	+14.4	45
2	Girona	18	14	3	1	+21	+8.8	45
3	Ath Madrid	18	12	2	4	+17	+10.7	38
4	Barcelona	18	11	5	2	+13	+22.6	38
5	Ath Bilbao	18	10	5	3	+15	+15.1	35
6	Sociedad	19	8	8	3	+11	+1.7	32
7	Betis	18	6	10	2	+2	-0.3	28
8	Getafe	19	6	8	5	-1	-4.4	26
9	Las Palmas	18	7	4	7	+0	-9.1	25
10	Valencia	18	6	5	7	-3	-2.6	23
11	Vallecano	19	5	8	6	-6	-3.6	23
12	Osasuna	18	5	4	9	-8	-4.9	19
13	Villarreal	18	5	4	9	-9	-5.5	19
14	Mallorca	18	3	9	6	-5	-2.8	18
15	Alaves	19	4	5	10	-10	+1.0	17
16	Sevilla	18	3	7	8	-2	-7.1	16
17	Cadiz	18	2	9	7	-10	-10.3	15
18	Celta	18	2	7	9	-10	-2.2	13
19	Granada	18	1	5	12	-20	-13.1	8
20	Almeria	18	0	5	13	-23	-8.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	10	9	1	0	+12	+10.8	28
2	Barcelona	10	8	0	2	+10	+12.2	24
3	Ath Bilbao	10	7	2	1	+14	+14.0	23
4	Real Madrid	8	7	1	0	+17	+12.3	22
5	Girona	9	7	1	1	+11	+4.1	22
6	Betis	9	5	4	0	+8	+6.1	19
7	Sociedad	10	5	4	1	+7	+0.6	19
8	Getafe	9	5	3	1	+3	+0.0	18
9	Las Palmas	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.9	15
10	Valencia	8	4	2	2	+5	+1.8	14
11	Alaves	9	4	1	4	-1	+5.0	13
12	Mallorca	9	2	6	1	+1	-1.7	12
13	Cadiz	9	2	5	2	-1	+2.1	11
14	Sevilla	9	2	4	3	+0	-1.9	10
15	Villarreal	10	3	1	6	-4	+0.9	10
16	Osasuna	9	2	3	4	-4	-0.7	9
17	Vallecano	9	1	5	3	-7	-3.5	8
18	Celta	9	1	4	4	-6	+3.7	7
19	Granada	9	1	4	4	-7	-4.6	7
20	Almeria	9	0	4	5	-8	-0.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	7	2	1	+11	+2.1	23
2	Girona	9	7	2	0	+10	+4.8	23
3	Vallecano	10	4	3	3	+1	-0.1	15
4	Barcelona	8	3	5	0	+3	+10.3	14
5	Sociedad	9	3	4	2	+4	+1.1	13
6	Ath Bilbao	8	3	3	2	+1	+1.1	12
7	Ath Madrid	8	3	1	4	+5	-0.1	10
8	Osasuna	9	3	1	5	-4	-4.2	10
9	Las Palmas	10	3	1	6	-4	-8.2	10
10	Villarreal	8	2	3	3	-5	-6.4	9
11	Betis	9	1	6	2	-6	-6.4	9
12	Valencia	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.4	9
13	Getafe	10	1	5	4	-4	-4.5	8
14	Sevilla	9	1	3	5	-2	-5.2	6
15	Celta	9	1	3	5	-4	-5.9	6
16	Mallorca	9	1	3	5	-6	-1.2	6
17	Cadiz	9	0	4	5	-9	-12.4	4
18	Alaves	10	0	4	6	-9	-4.1	4
19	Granada	9	0	1	8	-13	-8.5	1
20	Almeria	9	0	1	8	-15	-8.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.