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Championship

Referee: Simon Hooper

Aston Villa

T T S S S

5–5

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,8

This season — Championship · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 39%

39%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

56%

44%

Both score Ø 64%

72%

56%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–3

62% Possession 38%

26 Shots 8

12 Shots on target 5

11 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

12 Corners 2

4 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aston Villa 9. · Nott'm Forest 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	19	11	4	4	+11	37
2	Middlesbrough	19	9	8	2	+12	35
3	Sheffield United	19	10	4	5	+9	34
4	Leeds	18	9	6	3	+12	33
5	West Brom	18	9	4	5	+13	31
6	Derby	17	9	4	4	+9	31
7	Nott'm Forest	18	7	9	2	+9	30
8	QPR	19	8	4	7	-4	28
9	Aston Villa	18	7	6	5	+6	27
10	Swansea	18	7	5	6	+3	26
11	Blackburn	18	6	8	4	-4	26
12	Birmingham	18	5	9	4	+1	24
13	Stoke	18	5	8	5	-1	23
14	Sheffield Weds	19	6	5	8	-9	23
15	Preston	19	5	7	7	-1	22
16	Bristol City	18	6	4	8	-1	22
17	Brentford	19	5	6	8	+2	21
18	Wigan	18	6	3	9	-7	21
19	Rotherham	19	4	8	7	-9	20
20	Reading	19	4	5	10	-6	17
21	Millwall	18	4	5	9	-7	17
22	Hull	19	4	5	10	-10	17
23	Bolton	19	4	5	10	-13	17
24	Ipswich	18	1	8	9	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	10	6	3	1	+11	21
2	West Brom	9	6	1	2	+13	19
3	Aston Villa	9	5	3	1	+7	18
4	Sheffield United	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Wigan	9	5	3	1	+4	18
7	Norwich	9	6	0	3	+2	18
8	Brentford	10	5	2	3	+8	17
9	Derby	8	5	2	1	+6	17
10	Rotherham	10	4	5	1	+3	17
11	Preston	10	4	4	2	+7	16
12	QPR	9	5	1	3	+3	16
13	Nott'm Forest	9	4	4	1	+3	16
14	Birmingham	9	3	6	0	+5	15
15	Millwall	9	4	3	2	+4	15
16	Swansea	9	4	2	3	+3	14
17	Blackburn	9	3	5	1	+1	14
18	Sheffield Weds	10	3	4	3	-3	13
19	Stoke	9	3	3	3	+0	12
20	Bristol City	9	3	2	4	+0	11
21	Reading	9	3	1	5	+1	10
22	Hull	10	2	3	5	-4	9
23	Bolton	9	2	1	6	-8	7
24	Ipswich	9	0	6	3	-5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	10	5	4	1	+9	19
2	Middlesbrough	10	4	5	1	+5	17
3	Sheffield United	10	5	1	4	+2	16
4	Nott'm Forest	9	3	5	1	+6	14
5	Derby	9	4	2	3	+3	14
6	Leeds	8	3	3	2	+1	12
7	West Brom	9	3	3	3	+0	12
8	Swansea	9	3	3	3	+0	12
9	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	-5	12
10	QPR	10	3	3	4	-7	12
11	Stoke	9	2	5	2	-1	11
12	Bristol City	9	3	2	4	-1	11
13	Bolton	10	2	4	4	-5	10
14	Sheffield Weds	9	3	1	5	-6	10
15	Aston Villa	9	2	3	4	-1	9
16	Birmingham	9	2	3	4	-4	9
17	Hull	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Reading	10	1	4	5	-7	7
19	Preston	9	1	3	5	-8	6
20	Ipswich	9	1	2	6	-10	5
21	Brentford	9	0	4	5	-6	4
22	Wigan	9	1	0	8	-11	3
23	Rotherham	9	0	3	6	-12	3
24	Millwall	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.