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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Aston Villa

T S T T S

0–0

Full-time

Burnley

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,0

This season — Premier League · 10/11 matches

Win Ø 39%

60%

18%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

70%

36%

Both score Ø 34%

40%

27%

Average goals

3,4

2,2

Scored

2,1

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%

27 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 4

9 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 11. · Burnley 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	8	4	1	+10	28
2	Tottenham	13	7	4	2	+13	25
3	Southampton	13	7	3	3	+7	24
4	Leicester	13	8	0	5	+7	24
5	Everton	13	7	2	4	+5	23
6	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+12	22
7	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+5	21
8	Man City	12	5	5	2	+6	20
9	Man United	11	6	2	3	+2	20
10	Wolves	13	6	2	5	-4	20
11	Aston Villa	10	6	0	4	+8	18
12	Crystal Palace	13	5	3	5	+1	18
13	Leeds	13	5	2	6	-2	17
14	Newcastle	12	5	2	5	-5	17
15	Arsenal	13	4	2	7	-5	14
16	Brighton	13	2	5	6	-6	11
17	Fulham	13	2	3	8	-10	9
18	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-12	9
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-16	7
20	Sheffield United	12	0	1	11	-16	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+13	21
2	Southampton	6	4	0	2	+5	12
3	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+7	11
4	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
5	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
8	Everton	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Leicester	7	3	0	4	-1	9
10	Newcastle	6	3	0	3	-4	9
11	Crystal Palace	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Leeds	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-4	7
14	Aston Villa	5	2	0	3	+1	6
15	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	West Brom	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Man United	6	1	2	3	-7	5
18	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Brighton	6	0	3	3	-4	3
20	Sheffield United	6	0	1	5	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Leicester	6	5	0	1	+8	15
3	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Everton	7	4	1	2	+2	13
5	Aston Villa	5	4	0	1	+7	12
6	Southampton	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+5	11
8	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	+0	10
10	Man City	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Leeds	6	3	0	3	-1	9
12	Wolves	6	3	0	3	-5	9
13	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Brighton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	Arsenal	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Liverpool	6	1	4	1	-3	7
17	Burnley	6	1	2	3	-8	5
18	Fulham	6	1	1	4	-4	4
19	West Brom	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Sheffield United	6	0	0	6	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.