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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Dortmund

S U S U U

2–3

Full-time

Hoffenheim

T U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 41%

50%

32%

Points per game

1,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

59%

73%

Both score Ø 75%

64%

86%

Average goals

3,2

3,6

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,05 xG 1,25

70% Possession 30%

19 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 4. · Hoffenheim 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	23	19	4	0	+43	+26.1	61
2	Bayern Munich	23	17	2	4	+37	+41.1	53
3	Stuttgart	23	15	2	6	+23	+26.0	47
4	Dortmund	22	11	8	3	+17	+8.7	41
5	RB Leipzig	23	12	4	7	+19	+15.7	40
6	Ein Frankfurt	23	8	10	5	+6	-4.7	34
7	Werder Bremen	23	8	6	9	-3	-6.4	30
8	Freiburg	22	8	5	9	-11	-0.0	29
9	Heidenheim	23	7	7	9	-7	-19.1	28
10	Hoffenheim	22	7	6	9	-3	-1.3	27
11	M'gladbach	23	6	7	10	-4	-4.9	25
12	Wolfsburg	23	6	7	10	-8	-2.7	25
13	Union Berlin	23	7	4	12	-14	-7.6	25
14	Bochum	23	5	10	8	-18	-16.1	25
15	Augsburg	22	5	8	9	-9	-6.4	23
16	FC Koln	23	3	8	12	-21	-24.0	17
17	Mainz	23	2	9	12	-19	-0.8	15
18	Darmstadt	23	2	7	14	-28	-23.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	12	10	2	0	+27	+20.2	32
2	Bayern Munich	12	10	1	1	+31	+25.2	31
3	Stuttgart	12	9	2	1	+24	+22.3	29
4	RB Leipzig	12	8	2	2	+20	+14.2	26
5	Dortmund	11	7	2	2	+7	+8.5	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	5	1	+8	+3.3	20
7	Freiburg	11	5	4	2	+3	+8.5	19
8	M'gladbach	12	5	3	4	+5	+4.6	18
9	Bochum	11	4	6	1	+5	+2.7	18
10	Werder Bremen	12	5	3	4	+2	+1.0	18
11	Heidenheim	11	5	3	3	+2	-5.4	18
12	Union Berlin	11	5	2	4	-2	-0.6	17
13	Wolfsburg	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.9	16
14	Augsburg	11	3	5	3	+0	-1.3	14
15	Hoffenheim	11	2	4	5	-3	+4.0	10
16	FC Koln	11	2	3	6	-7	-8.6	9
17	Mainz	11	2	3	6	-7	+3.6	9
18	Darmstadt	12	1	3	8	-12	-6.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	11	9	2	0	+16	+5.9	29
2	Bayern Munich	11	7	1	3	+6	+15.9	22
3	Dortmund	11	4	6	1	+10	+0.2	18
4	Stuttgart	11	6	0	5	-1	+3.7	18
5	Hoffenheim	11	5	2	4	+0	-5.4	17
6	RB Leipzig	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.5	14
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	3	5	4	-2	-8.0	14
8	Werder Bremen	11	3	3	5	-5	-7.4	12
9	Heidenheim	12	2	4	6	-9	-13.7	10
10	Freiburg	11	3	1	7	-14	-8.5	10
11	Augsburg	11	2	3	6	-9	-5.1	9
12	Wolfsburg	12	2	3	7	-11	-1.7	9
13	Union Berlin	12	2	2	8	-12	-6.9	8
14	FC Koln	12	1	5	6	-14	-15.4	8
15	M'gladbach	11	1	4	6	-9	-9.5	7
16	Darmstadt	11	1	4	6	-16	-17.3	7
17	Bochum	12	1	4	7	-23	-18.8	7
18	Mainz	12	0	6	6	-12	-4.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.