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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Schlager

Augsburg

S T T T U

2–2

Full-time

Hoffenheim

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Augsburg Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

2,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 43%

32%

54%

Points per game

1,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

57%

68%

Both score Ø 61%

57%

64%

Average goals

3,0

3,4

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,93 xG 0,99

34% Possession 66%

17 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 18

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Augsburg 11. · Hoffenheim 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	23	4	1	+73	+52.1	73
2	Dortmund	28	19	7	2	+32	+21.0	64
3	RB Leipzig	28	16	5	7	+19	+13.4	53
4	Stuttgart	28	16	5	7	+18	+8.3	53
5	Hoffenheim	28	15	5	8	+14	+2.5	50
6	Leverkusen	28	14	7	7	+19	+17.2	49
7	Ein Frankfurt	28	10	9	9	-1	-2.8	39
8	Freiburg	28	10	7	11	-6	+3.8	37
9	Mainz	28	8	9	11	-8	-6.1	33
10	Union Berlin	28	8	8	12	-15	-6.3	32
11	Augsburg	28	9	5	14	-17	-15.8	32
12	Hamburg	28	7	10	11	-9	-15.8	31
13	M'gladbach	28	7	9	12	-13	-6.3	30
14	Werder Bremen	28	7	7	14	-18	-7.3	28
15	FC Koln	28	6	9	13	-9	-5.2	27
16	St Pauli	28	6	7	15	-20	-18.5	25
17	Wolfsburg	28	5	6	17	-25	-17.2	21
18	Heidenheim	28	3	7	18	-34	-17.0	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	1	1	+43	+30.5	37
2	Dortmund	14	11	2	1	+20	+17.3	35
3	Stuttgart	14	10	2	2	+8	+6.3	32
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+16	+9.0	29
5	Leverkusen	14	8	3	3	+17	+17.4	27
6	Hoffenheim	14	8	1	5	+12	+6.2	25
7	Freiburg	14	7	4	3	+7	+10.5	25
8	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	3	4	+5	+3.7	24
9	Hamburg	15	5	6	4	+3	-2.6	21
10	Augsburg	14	6	3	5	-5	-8.3	21
11	Union Berlin	14	4	6	4	-3	+3.4	18
12	Mainz	14	4	5	5	+0	+4.9	17
13	M'gladbach	14	4	5	5	-5	-1.6	17
14	FC Koln	14	4	4	6	+1	+0.9	16
15	St Pauli	13	4	4	5	-6	-3.5	16
16	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	-10	+3.4	16
17	Heidenheim	14	2	5	7	-16	-9.2	11
18	Wolfsburg	14	2	3	9	-9	-2.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	11	3	0	+30	+21.6	36
2	Dortmund	14	8	5	1	+12	+3.7	29
3	Hoffenheim	14	7	4	3	+2	-3.7	25
4	RB Leipzig	14	7	3	4	+3	+4.4	24
5	Leverkusen	14	6	4	4	+2	-0.2	22
6	Stuttgart	14	6	3	5	+10	+2.0	21
7	Mainz	14	4	4	6	-8	-11.1	16
8	Ein Frankfurt	14	3	6	5	-6	-6.5	15
9	Union Berlin	14	4	2	8	-12	-9.7	14
10	M'gladbach	14	3	4	7	-8	-4.7	13
11	Werder Bremen	14	3	3	8	-8	-10.7	12
12	Freiburg	14	3	3	8	-13	-6.6	12
13	Wolfsburg	14	3	3	8	-16	-15.2	12
14	FC Koln	14	2	5	7	-10	-6.1	11
15	Augsburg	14	3	2	9	-12	-7.5	11
16	Hamburg	13	2	4	7	-12	-13.2	10
17	St Pauli	15	2	3	10	-14	-15.0	9
18	Heidenheim	14	1	2	11	-18	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.