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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Nott'm Forest

U S U T T

1–0

Full-time

Leeds

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 23%

25%

21%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

35%

63%

Both score Ø 49%

35%

63%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,39 xG 0,89

30% Possession 70%

6 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 14. · Leeds 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	20	16	2	2	+28	+2.1	50
2	Man City	20	14	3	3	+33	+3.6	45
3	Man United	21	13	3	5	+8	-0.7	42
4	Newcastle	21	10	10	1	+22	+0.9	40
5	Tottenham	21	11	3	7	+9	-1.6	36
6	Brighton	20	10	4	6	+11	+2.5	34
7	Brentford	21	8	9	4	+7	+1.4	33
8	Fulham	22	9	5	8	+2	-0.6	32
9	Chelsea	21	8	6	7	+1	+0.9	30
10	Liverpool	20	8	5	7	+6	-0.3	29
11	Aston Villa	21	8	4	9	-6	-0.1	28
12	Crystal Palace	21	6	6	9	-10	-3.2	24
13	Leicester	21	6	3	12	-5	-0.3	21
14	Nott'm Forest	20	5	6	9	-19	+0.5	21
15	Wolves	21	5	5	11	-15	-1.9	20
16	West Ham	21	5	4	12	-8	+1.7	19
17	Leeds	19	4	6	9	-7	+0.1	18
18	Everton	21	4	6	11	-12	-1.0	18
19	Bournemouth	21	4	5	12	-24	-1.8	17
20	Southampton	21	4	3	14	-21	-2.3	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+26	+3.6	28
2	Arsenal	9	8	1	0	+15	+2.9	25
3	Man United	10	8	1	1	+13	+0.7	25
4	Newcastle	11	6	5	0	+13	+0.0	23
5	Brentford	11	6	4	1	+13	+1.5	22
6	Liverpool	10	6	3	1	+14	-0.2	21
7	Tottenham	10	6	0	4	+6	–	18
8	Chelsea	10	5	3	2	+6	+0.7	18
9	Fulham	11	5	3	3	+2	+0.1	18
10	Brighton	10	5	2	3	+7	+1.3	17
11	Aston Villa	11	5	2	4	+2	-0.9	17
12	Nott'm Forest	10	4	3	3	+1	–	15
13	Crystal Palace	11	4	3	4	-5	-2.5	15
14	Wolves	11	4	2	5	-5	+0.1	14
15	Leeds	10	3	4	3	+1	+0.1	13
16	West Ham	10	4	1	5	-1	+1.7	13
17	Bournemouth	10	3	3	4	-1	-0.5	12
18	Everton	11	3	2	6	-4	+0.8	11
19	Leicester	10	2	3	5	-1	-1.2	9
20	Southampton	10	1	3	6	-8	-0.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	8	1	2	+13	-0.8	25
2	Tottenham	11	5	3	3	+3	-1.6	18
3	Newcastle	10	4	5	1	+9	+0.9	17
4	Man City	9	5	2	2	+7	–	17
5	Brighton	10	5	2	3	+4	+1.2	17
6	Man United	11	5	2	4	-5	-1.3	17
7	Fulham	11	4	2	5	+0	-0.7	14
8	Leicester	11	4	0	7	-4	+0.9	12
9	Chelsea	11	3	3	5	-5	+0.2	12
10	Brentford	10	2	5	3	-6	-0.1	11
11	Aston Villa	10	3	2	5	-8	+0.8	11
12	Crystal Palace	10	2	3	5	-5	-0.7	9
13	Southampton	11	3	0	8	-13	-1.5	9
14	Liverpool	10	2	2	6	-8	-0.1	8
15	Everton	10	1	4	5	-8	-1.7	7
16	West Ham	11	1	3	7	-7	+0.0	6
17	Wolves	10	1	3	6	-10	-2.0	6
18	Nott'm Forest	10	1	3	6	-20	+0.5	6
19	Leeds	9	1	2	6	-8	–	5
20	Bournemouth	11	1	2	8	-23	-1.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.