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Championship

Referee: England Darren

Nott'm Forest

T U T U T

4–2

Full-time

Leeds

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

This season — Championship · 25/24 matches

Win Ø 45%

32%

58%

Points per game

1,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

40%

46%

Both score Ø 51%

48%

54%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%

13 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 10. · Leeds 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	24	14	6	4	+15	48
2	Norwich	25	14	6	5	+14	48
3	West Brom	24	13	6	5	+21	45
4	Sheffield United	25	13	5	7	+14	44
5	Middlesbrough	25	11	9	5	+10	42
6	Derby	24	12	6	6	+9	42
7	Birmingham	25	9	11	5	+10	38
8	QPR	25	11	5	9	-1	38
9	Aston Villa	24	9	9	6	+9	36
10	Nott'm Forest	25	8	12	5	+8	36
11	Bristol City	25	9	8	8	+2	35
12	Stoke	25	8	11	6	+1	35
13	Swansea	25	9	6	10	+1	33
14	Hull	25	9	6	10	-3	33
15	Blackburn	25	7	10	8	-9	31
16	Sheffield Weds	25	8	7	10	-10	31
17	Preston	25	7	8	10	-4	29
18	Brentford	25	6	9	10	+0	27
19	Wigan	25	7	5	13	-12	26
20	Millwall	25	6	7	12	-9	25
21	Bolton	25	5	7	13	-15	22
22	Rotherham	25	4	10	11	-17	22
23	Reading	25	4	8	13	-10	20
24	Ipswich	25	2	9	14	-24	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	13	8	3	2	+11	27
2	Norwich	13	8	1	4	+4	25
3	West Brom	12	7	3	2	+15	24
4	Sheffield United	13	7	3	3	+10	24
5	QPR	13	7	2	4	+6	23
6	Birmingham	13	5	7	1	+9	22
7	Derby	11	6	4	1	+7	22
8	Middlesbrough	13	6	4	3	+5	22
9	Millwall	13	6	4	3	+4	22
10	Stoke	12	6	3	3	+4	21
11	Wigan	12	6	3	3	+2	21
12	Brentford	12	6	2	4	+8	20
13	Preston	13	5	5	3	+7	20
14	Aston Villa	12	5	5	2	+6	20
15	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+3	19
16	Swansea	13	5	3	5	+2	18
17	Blackburn	12	4	6	2	+2	18
18	Rotherham	12	4	6	2	-1	18
19	Bristol City	13	4	5	4	+1	17
20	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	-2	17
21	Hull	12	4	3	5	-1	15
22	Bolton	13	3	3	7	-8	12
23	Reading	12	3	2	7	-2	11
24	Ipswich	12	1	7	4	-5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	12	6	5	1	+10	23
2	West Brom	12	6	3	3	+6	21
3	Leeds	11	6	3	2	+4	21
4	Middlesbrough	12	5	5	2	+5	20
5	Sheffield United	12	6	2	4	+4	20
6	Derby	13	6	2	5	+2	20
7	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+1	18
8	Hull	13	5	3	5	-2	18
9	Nott'm Forest	13	3	8	2	+5	17
10	Aston Villa	12	4	4	4	+3	16
11	Birmingham	12	4	4	4	+1	16
12	Swansea	12	4	3	5	-1	15
13	QPR	12	4	3	5	-7	15
14	Stoke	13	2	8	3	-3	14
15	Sheffield Weds	13	4	2	7	-8	14
16	Blackburn	13	3	4	6	-11	13
17	Bolton	12	2	4	6	-7	10
18	Reading	13	1	6	6	-8	9
19	Preston	12	2	3	7	-11	9
20	Brentford	13	0	7	6	-8	7
21	Wigan	13	1	2	10	-14	5
22	Ipswich	13	1	2	10	-19	5
23	Rotherham	13	0	4	9	-16	4
24	Millwall	12	0	3	9	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.