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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Inter

S S T S S

1–0

Full-time

Milan

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,8

Scored

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,2

This season — Serie A · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 60%

65%

55%

Points per game

2,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

70%

75%

Both score Ø 68%

60%

75%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,9

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,87 xG 0,32

64% Possession 36%

15 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 2. · Milan 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	21	18	2	1	+36	+1.9	56
2	Inter	20	13	1	6	+14	+2.0	40
3	Roma	21	12	4	5	+10	+1.0	40
4	Lazio	20	11	5	4	+20	+1.9	38
5	Atalanta	21	11	5	5	+15	-0.7	38
6	Juventus	20	11	5	4	+13	+1.3	38
7	Milan	20	11	5	4	+8	-3.1	38
8	Torino	21	8	6	7	+0	+0.9	30
9	Udinese	21	7	8	6	+5	+0.1	29
10	Bologna	21	8	5	8	-3	+0.5	29
11	Empoli	21	6	8	7	-7	-0.5	26
12	Monza	20	7	4	9	-3	-0.4	25
13	Fiorentina	21	6	6	9	-5	+1.2	24
14	Lecce	21	5	8	8	-3	+1.8	23
15	Sassuolo	21	6	5	10	-7	+1.6	23
16	Salernitana	20	5	6	9	-13	-1.5	21
17	Spezia	21	4	6	11	-18	-3.5	18
18	Verona	20	3	4	13	-14	-1.5	13
19	Sampdoria	20	2	3	15	-26	-1.1	9
20	Cremonese	21	0	8	13	-22	-1.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	9	1	0	+20	+0.2	28
2	Juventus	11	7	3	1	+16	+1.3	24
3	Inter	10	8	0	2	+16	+0.6	24
4	Milan	10	7	1	2	+8	-0.8	22
5	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+11	+1.9	21
6	Bologna	11	5	4	2	+7	+0.5	19
7	Roma	10	6	1	3	+7	-0.5	19
8	Atalanta	10	5	2	3	+8	+1.0	17
9	Torino	10	4	3	3	+2	+1.1	15
10	Empoli	10	4	3	3	+0	-0.4	15
11	Fiorentina	11	4	3	4	-2	+0.7	15
12	Udinese	10	3	5	2	+5	+1.2	14
13	Monza	10	4	2	4	+3	-0.0	14
14	Sassuolo	10	4	2	4	+2	+0.8	14
15	Salernitana	10	3	3	4	+1	-1.0	12
16	Spezia	11	2	6	3	-4	-2.4	12
17	Lecce	10	2	5	3	-1	+0.6	11
18	Verona	10	3	0	7	-5	-0.3	9
19	Cremonese	11	0	3	8	-14	-2.3	3
20	Sampdoria	10	0	2	8	-14	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	9	1	1	+16	+1.6	28
2	Atalanta	11	6	3	2	+7	-1.6	21
3	Roma	11	6	3	2	+3	+1.5	21
4	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+9	–	17
5	Milan	10	4	4	2	+0	-2.4	16
6	Inter	10	5	1	4	-2	+1.4	16
7	Udinese	11	4	3	4	+0	-1.1	15
8	Torino	11	4	3	4	-2	-0.2	15
9	Juventus	9	4	2	3	-3	–	14
10	Lecce	11	3	3	5	-2	+1.2	12
11	Monza	10	3	2	5	-6	-0.4	11
12	Empoli	11	2	5	4	-7	-0.1	11
13	Bologna	10	3	1	6	-10	-0.1	10
14	Fiorentina	10	2	3	5	-3	+0.4	9
15	Sassuolo	11	2	3	6	-9	+0.8	9
16	Salernitana	10	2	3	5	-14	-0.6	9
17	Sampdoria	10	2	1	7	-12	-1.0	7
18	Spezia	10	2	0	8	-14	-1.1	6
19	Cremonese	10	0	5	5	-8	+0.6	5
20	Verona	10	0	4	6	-9	-1.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.