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Primeira Liga

Referee: Ricardo Baixinho

Sp Braga

S S S S T

4–1

Full-time

Famalicao

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 53%

72%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

61%

44%

Both score Ø 31%

28%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

2,2

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

14 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 3. · Famalicao 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	20	17	2	1	+39	53
2	Porto	18	13	3	2	+32	42
3	Sp Braga	18	13	1	4	+21	40
4	Sp Lisbon	18	11	2	5	+19	35
5	Guimaraes	19	9	3	7	-2	30
6	Casa Pia	19	9	3	7	-2	30
7	Arouca	18	7	5	6	-6	26
8	Boavista	18	7	4	7	-7	25
9	Vizela	18	7	3	8	+4	24
10	Chaves	18	5	7	6	-6	22
11	Rio Ave	18	5	6	7	-5	21
12	Famalicao	18	6	3	9	-6	21
13	Portimonense	18	6	2	10	-10	20
14	Estoril	18	5	4	9	-7	19
15	Gil Vicente	18	5	3	10	-8	18
16	Santa Clara	19	3	6	10	-11	15
17	Maritimo	18	3	4	11	-22	13
18	Pacos Ferreira	19	2	3	14	-23	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	1	0	+24	28
2	Sp Lisbon	9	8	0	1	+21	24
3	Porto	8	7	0	1	+23	21
4	Guimaraes	10	6	2	2	+4	20
5	Boavista	10	5	3	2	+0	18
6	Sp Braga	8	5	1	2	+10	16
7	Famalicao	9	5	1	3	+3	16
8	Arouca	10	5	1	4	+0	16
9	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	+0	14
10	Vizela	9	4	1	4	+5	13
11	Rio Ave	8	4	1	3	+2	13
12	Portimonense	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	Gil Vicente	9	3	2	4	-2	11
14	Santa Clara	10	2	4	4	-6	10
15	Chaves	8	1	5	2	-1	8
16	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-4	8
17	Estoril	8	2	2	4	-5	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	2	8	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+15	25
2	Sp Braga	10	8	0	2	+11	24
3	Porto	10	6	3	1	+9	21
4	Casa Pia	9	5	1	3	-2	16
5	Chaves	10	4	2	4	-5	14
6	Vizela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
7	Sp Lisbon	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Estoril	10	3	2	5	-2	11
9	Guimaraes	9	3	1	5	-6	10
10	Arouca	8	2	4	2	-6	10
11	Portimonense	9	3	0	6	-8	9
12	Rio Ave	10	1	5	4	-7	8
13	Gil Vicente	9	2	1	6	-6	7
14	Boavista	8	2	1	5	-7	7
15	Santa Clara	9	1	2	6	-5	5
16	Famalicao	9	1	2	6	-9	5
17	Maritimo	9	1	2	6	-18	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	1	6	-10	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.