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Bundesliga

Referee: D Schlager

RB Leipzig

U S S S U

1–2

Full-time

Union Berlin

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 58%

53%

63%

Points per game

1,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

68%

58%

Both score Ø 61%

63%

58%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

2,1

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,69 xG 1,64

64% Possession 36%

9 Shots 6

1 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

4 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 5. · Union Berlin 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	20	12	7	1	+41	+2.7	43
2	Dortmund	20	13	1	6	+14	+4.0	40
3	Union Berlin	19	12	3	4	+10	+2.7	39
4	Freiburg	20	11	4	5	+1	-0.3	37
5	RB Leipzig	19	10	6	3	+15	+1.9	36
6	Ein Frankfurt	19	10	5	4	+14	-2.0	35
7	Wolfsburg	20	8	6	6	+12	+5.5	30
8	Leverkusen	20	8	3	9	+1	+3.2	27
9	Werder Bremen	20	8	3	9	-8	-4.7	27
10	M'gladbach	19	7	5	7	+5	-1.6	26
11	Mainz	20	7	5	8	-2	+0.9	26
12	FC Koln	19	5	8	6	-2	+0.9	23
13	Augsburg	20	6	3	11	-11	-1.4	21
14	Hoffenheim	20	5	4	11	-10	-2.9	19
15	Bochum	20	6	1	13	-25	-2.4	19
16	Stuttgart	20	3	7	10	-13	-0.5	16
17	Hertha	19	3	5	11	-15	-5.4	14
18	Schalke 04	20	2	6	12	-27	-0.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	7	2	0	+15	-0.6	23
2	Union Berlin	9	7	2	0	+11	+1.7	23
3	Freiburg	10	7	2	1	+10	+3.1	23
4	Bayern Munich	10	6	4	0	+23	+4.9	22
5	Dortmund	9	7	1	1	+15	+2.7	22
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	6	1	3	+11	+0.6	19
7	M'gladbach	10	6	1	3	+9	-0.9	19
8	Bochum	9	5	1	3	+0	+2.4	16
9	Wolfsburg	9	4	3	2	+9	+4.1	15
10	FC Koln	9	4	3	2	+8	+2.4	15
11	Leverkusen	10	4	2	4	+6	+1.8	14
12	Mainz	10	3	4	3	+3	+1.1	13
13	Werder Bremen	11	4	1	6	-1	-0.9	13
14	Stuttgart	10	3	3	4	-1	+1.3	12
15	Hoffenheim	11	3	2	6	-6	+0.7	11
16	Augsburg	10	3	2	5	-6	+0.8	11
17	Hertha	10	2	4	4	-6	-3.5	10
18	Schalke 04	11	2	3	6	-15	-1.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	6	3	1	+18	-2.2	21
2	Dortmund	11	6	0	5	-1	+1.3	18
3	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	4	1	+3	-2.6	16
4	Union Berlin	10	5	1	4	-1	+1.1	16
5	Wolfsburg	11	4	3	4	+3	+1.4	15
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	-7	-3.8	14
7	Freiburg	10	4	2	4	-9	-3.5	14
8	RB Leipzig	10	3	4	3	+0	+2.5	13
9	Leverkusen	10	4	1	5	-5	+1.4	13
10	Mainz	10	4	1	5	-5	-0.2	13
11	Augsburg	10	3	1	6	-5	-2.3	10
12	Hoffenheim	9	2	2	5	-4	-3.7	8
13	FC Koln	10	1	5	4	-10	-1.5	8
14	M'gladbach	9	1	4	4	-4	-0.7	7
15	Hertha	9	1	1	7	-9	-1.9	4
16	Stuttgart	10	0	4	6	-12	-1.8	4
17	Schalke 04	9	0	3	6	-12	+0.6	3
18	Bochum	11	1	0	10	-25	-4.8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.