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Bundesliga

Referee: M Schmidt

RB Leipzig

S U S T U

1–0

Full-time

Union Berlin

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 50%

56%

44%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

63%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,6

3,3

Scored

1,8

2,0

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

67% Possession 33%

15 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 1

0 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 3. · Union Berlin 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	11	3	2	+23	36
2	Leverkusen	17	9	5	3	+15	32
3	RB Leipzig	16	9	5	2	+14	32
4	Dortmund	17	9	2	6	+11	29
5	Wolfsburg	17	7	8	2	+7	29
6	Union Berlin	16	7	7	2	+12	28
7	M'gladbach	17	7	7	3	+5	28
8	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	8	2	+4	26
9	Freiburg	16	6	5	5	+3	23
10	Stuttgart	16	5	7	4	+8	22
11	Hoffenheim	17	5	4	8	-5	19
12	Augsburg	16	5	4	7	-8	19
13	Werder Bremen	17	4	6	7	-6	18
14	Hertha	17	4	5	8	-5	17
15	FC Koln	17	3	6	8	-13	15
16	Bielefeld	16	4	2	10	-14	14
17	Mainz	17	1	4	12	-21	7
18	Schalke 04	17	1	4	12	-30	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	2	0	+19	20
2	RB Leipzig	8	6	1	1	+11	19
3	Wolfsburg	8	5	3	0	+6	18
4	Union Berlin	9	4	4	1	+9	16
5	M'gladbach	9	4	4	1	+5	16
6	Leverkusen	8	4	3	1	+6	15
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	5	0	+4	14
8	Dortmund	8	4	1	3	+6	13
9	Freiburg	8	3	3	2	+6	12
10	Bielefeld	8	3	0	5	-5	9
11	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-1	8
12	Werder Bremen	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Hertha	8	2	2	4	-5	8
14	Augsburg	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Stuttgart	8	0	5	3	-4	5
16	Schalke 04	9	1	2	6	-7	5
17	FC Koln	9	0	3	6	-10	3
18	Mainz	9	0	2	7	-11	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgart	8	5	2	1	+12	17
2	Leverkusen	9	5	2	2	+9	17
3	Dortmund	9	5	1	3	+5	16
4	Bayern Munich	8	5	1	2	+4	16
5	RB Leipzig	8	3	4	1	+3	13
6	Union Berlin	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	M'gladbach	8	3	3	2	+0	12
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	3	2	+0	12
9	FC Koln	8	3	3	2	-3	12
10	Wolfsburg	9	2	5	2	+1	11
11	Augsburg	8	3	2	3	-2	11
12	Freiburg	8	3	2	3	-3	11
13	Hoffenheim	9	3	2	4	-4	11
14	Werder Bremen	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Hertha	9	2	3	4	+0	9
16	Bielefeld	8	1	2	5	-9	5
17	Mainz	8	1	2	5	-10	5
18	Schalke 04	8	0	2	6	-23	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.