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Bundesliga
Referee: F Willenborg
Stuttgart
S S T S T
2–1
Full-time
Hertha
U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Hertha
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
2,2
1,5
Conceded
1,8
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
This season — Bundesliga · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 15%
15%
15%
Points per game
0,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
62%
46%
Both score Ø 69%
69%
69%
Average goals
3,1
2,8
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

60% Possession 40%
17 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
8 Corners 5
3 Offside 0
9 Free kicks against 15
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Stuttgart 16. · Hertha 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 13 8 4 1 +29 28
2 Freiburg 13 8 3 2 +7 27
3 Union Berlin 13 8 2 3 +7 26
4 Dortmund 14 8 1 5 +6 25
5 Ein Frankfurt 13 7 2 4 +6 23
6 RB Leipzig 13 6 4 3 +6 22
7 Werder Bremen 13 6 3 4 +4 21
8 Wolfsburg 14 5 5 4 +3 20
9 M'gladbach 13 5 4 4 +3 19
10 Hoffenheim 13 5 3 5 +3 18
11 Mainz 13 5 3 5 -4 18
12 FC Koln 13 4 5 4 -5 17
13 Augsburg 13 4 2 7 -7 14
14 Leverkusen 13 3 3 7 -4 12
15 Hertha 13 2 5 6 -4 11
16 Stuttgart 13 2 5 6 -8 11
17 Bochum 13 2 1 10 -24 7
18 Schalke 04 13 1 3 9 -18 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stuttgart Hertha
1–0 S. Guirassy
Tiago Tomás
3′
19′
D. Lukébakio 1–1
J. Kenny
31′
🟨 Marc-Oliver Kempf
Konstantinos Mavropanos 🟨
34′
34′
🟨 Marco Richter
Half-time 1–1
Lilian Egloff 🟨
56′
61′
🔁 I. Šunjić
↦ S. Serdar
61′
🔁 W. Kanga
↦ D. Selke
61′
🔁 C. Ejuke
↦ M. Richter
E. Millot 🔁
↦ L. Egloff
64′
Borna Sosa 🟨
73′
L. Pfeiffer 🔁
↦ S. Katompa Mvumpa
73′
J. Vagnoman 🔁
↦ Tiago Tomás
73′
A. Karazor 🔁
↦ W. Endo
82′
2–1 K. Mavropanos
B. Sosa
98′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Stuttgart

4-3-3
1 F. Müller G
2 W. Anton D
5 K. Mavropanos D
21 H. Ito D
24 B. Sosa D
32 N. Ahamada M
3 W. Endo M
25 L. Egloff M
14 S. Katompa Mvumpa F
9 S. Guirassy F
10 Tiago Tomás F
Bench (9)
8 E. Millot
20 L. Pfeiffer
4 J. Vagnoman
16 A. Karazor
23 D. Zagadou
28 N. Nartey
33 F. Bredlow
7 T. Coulibaly
15 P. Stenzel

Coach: M. Wimmer

Hertha

4-2-2-2
1 O. Christensen G
16 J. Kenny D
3 A. Rogel D
20 M. Kempf D
21 M. Plattenhardt D
29 L. Tousart M
8 S. Serdar M
23 M. Richter M
10 J. Boëtius M
7 D. Selke F
14 D. Lukébakio F
Bench (9)
34 I. Šunjić
18 W. Kanga
40 C. Ejuke
11 M. Maolida
5 F. Uremović
17 M. Mittelstädt
12 T. Ernst
27 K. Boateng
2 P. Pekarík

Coach: S. Schwarz

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,96
U
3,71
B
3,80
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,73
U2,5
2,13
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Willenborg · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.