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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Tiago Neves

Varzim

S S S

1–0

Full-time

São João Ver

S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Varzim São João Ver

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

5,0

Scored

1,3

4,3

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+3,7

This season — Taça de Portugal · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

5,0

Scored

1,3

4,3

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+3,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Varzim 8. · São João Ver 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vilaverdense	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Pêro Pinheiro	3	3	0	0	+11	9
3	São João Ver	3	3	0	0	+11	9
4	Beira-Mar	3	3	0	0	+10	9
5	Dumiense	3	3	0	0	+9	9
6	Valadares Gaia	3	3	0	0	+6	9
7	Sanjoanense	3	3	0	0	+6	9
8	Varzim	3	3	0	0	+3	9
9	Camacha	3	2	1	0	+7	7
10	Oliveira Hospital	4	2	1	1	-5	7
11	FC Serpa	3	2	0	1	+8	6
12	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+8	6
13	Vitoria Setubal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
14	Academico Viseu	2	2	0	0	+5	6
15	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+5	6
16	Fontinhas	3	2	0	1	+5	6
17	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	6
18	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
19	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
20	Montalegre	3	2	0	1	+4	6
21	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+4	6
22	Farense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
23	Felgueiras 1932	3	2	0	1	+3	6
24	Sertanense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
25	Mafra	2	2	0	0	+3	6
26	Rabo Peixe	2	2	0	0	+2	6
27	Olhanense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
28	Canelas 2010	3	2	0	1	+2	6
29	Pevidem	2	2	0	0	+2	6
30	Bragança	3	2	0	1	+1	6
31	Tirsense	3	2	0	1	-1	6
32	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
33	Tondela	2	1	1	0	+2	4
34	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
35	Penafiel	2	1	1	0	+1	4
36	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
37	Machico	2	1	1	0	+1	4
38	Oriental Lisboa	3	1	1	1	+0	4
39	Pombal	3	1	1	1	-2	4
40	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
41	Porto	1	1	0	0	+6	3
42	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
43	Merelinense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
44	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
45	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
46	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
47	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
48	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Amora	2	1	0	1	+1	3
50	Ferreiras	2	1	0	1	+1	3
51	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Real	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Resende	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Lagos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
68	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
69	Joane	2	1	0	1	-2	3
70	Imortal Albufeira	2	1	0	1	-2	3
71	Courense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
72	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
73	Anadia	2	1	0	1	-5	3
74	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	AR São Martinho	2	0	1	1	-2	1
82	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Sp Lisbon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
139	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
140	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
141	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
142	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
143	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
144	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
145	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
146	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
147	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
148	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
149	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
150	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
151	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
152	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vilaverdense	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Pêro Pinheiro	3	3	0	0	+11	9
3	Valadares Gaia	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Varzim	3	3	0	0	+3	9
5	Oliveira Hospital	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
7	Vitoria Setubal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Sanjoanense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Bragança	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+3	4
12	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Machico	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
16	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
17	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	+3	3
18	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Canelas 2010	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Olhanense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	AR São Martinho	2	0	1	1	-2	1
47	Merelinense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Resende	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Vianense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	União de Leiria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Montalegre	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Joane	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
77	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
80	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
81	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
82	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
83	Anadia	1	0	0	1	-6	0
84	Courense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
85	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Beira-Mar	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Farense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Pevidem	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Camacha	2	1	1	0	+6	4
11	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+8	3
13	Porto	1	1	0	0	+6	3
14	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
15	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Oliveirense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Amora	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Real	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
46	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
47	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	CF Os Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Sp Lisbon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
95	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
96	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
97	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
99	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
100	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-4	0
101	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
102	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
103	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
104	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-7	0
105	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Varzim São João Ver

1–0 Iván García ⚽

42′

J. Vilela 🟨

44′

Half-time 1–0

46′

🔁 Léo Cá

↦ Rhyan

46′

🔁 Tamble Monteiro

↦ M. Villarroel

48′

🟨 Rhyan

Bruno Sapo 🔁

↦ J. Bonilla

59′

R. Areias 🟨

60′

T. Cabral 🟨

61′

Diogo Ramalho 🔁

↦ Areias

68′

O. Osemene 🔁

↦ Iván García

68′

72′

🔁 Filipe Maio

↦ Edu

72′

🔁 Francisco Ferreira

↦ Rúben Silvestre

Latón 🔁

↦ Jorge Vilela

76′

77′

🟨 D. M. Ribeiro Gomes

78′

🔁 J. Sinisterra

↦ Barbosa

Laton 🟨

80′

92′

🟨 P. Santos

Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Varzim

Ricardo Nunes

João Faria

Tiago Cerveira

Tito Júnior

J. Bonilla

Jorge Vilela

Joãozinho

Paulo Moreira

Iván García

Areias

João Vasco

Bench (9)

Bruno Sapo

Diogo Ramalho

O. Osemene

Latón

João Sidónio

Ludovic

Matheus Guarujá

Tiago Pereira

Jose Augusto

Coach: Tiago Margarido

São João Ver

Mário Évora

Weliton Matos

Pedro Santos

Edu

Diogo Pereira

Barbosa

Daniel

M. Villarroel

Diogo Gomes

Rúben Silvestre

Rhyan

Bench (9)

Léo Cá

Tamble Monteiro

Filipe Maio

Francisco Ferreira

J. Sinisterra

Emanuel

J. Herrera

Ricardo Benjamim

Eduardo Barbosa

Coach: Henrique Nunes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5

–

🔒

U1,5 ✓

–

🔒

O2,5

–

🔒

U2,5 ✓

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

🔒

BLS nei ✓

–

🔒

Recent matches

16. Oct TP 3 years ago

1. Oct TP 3 years ago

11. Sep TP 4 years ago

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Varzim

São João Ver

Odds comparison

Recent matches