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League Cup

Referee: S Barrott

Burnley

S S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Crawley Town

S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Crawley Town

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

This season — League Cup · 1/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

1,0

1,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

85% Possession 15%

23 Shots 4

6 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

12 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 30. · Crawley Town 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Milton Keynes Dons	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Crawley Town	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Newport County	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Derby	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Stevenage	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
10	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+3	4
11	Gillingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
12	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Morecambe	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Stockport County	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
20	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
38	Rochdale	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Colchester	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
43	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
44	Barrow	2	0	2	0	+0	2
45	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-1	1
54	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
55	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
83	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
84	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
85	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Crawley Town	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Rochdale	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Grimsby	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Bradford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Fleetwood Town	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Forest Green	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Cambridge United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
20	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
21	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Gillingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Oxford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Watford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Colchester	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
45	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
46	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
47	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
48	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Exeter City	2	1	1	0	+7	4
3	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Preston	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+2	3
10	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Peterborough	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Morecambe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Rochdale	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
52	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
53	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.