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League Cup
Referee: D England
Bournemouth
U T T T T
4–1
Full-time
Everton
T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Everton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
3,7
1,8
Scored
1,5
0,7
Conceded
2,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,5
This season — League Cup · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
4,0
1,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
2,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%
12 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 5
1 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 6
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bournemouth 48. · Everton 31.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bristol City 2 2 0 0 +5 6
2 Blackburn 2 2 0 0 +5 6
3 Sheffield Weds 2 2 0 0 +5 6
4 Milton Keynes Dons 2 2 0 0 +3 6
5 Crawley Town 2 2 0 0 +3 6
6 Newport County 2 2 0 0 +2 6
7 Derby 2 2 0 0 +2 6
8 Stevenage 2 2 0 0 +2 6
9 Exeter City 2 1 1 0 +7 4
10 Lincoln 2 1 1 0 +3 4
11 Gillingham 2 1 1 0 +2 4
12 Charlton 2 1 1 0 +1 4
13 Morecambe 2 1 1 0 +1 4
14 Stockport County 2 1 1 0 +1 4
15 Aston Villa 1 1 0 0 +3 3
16 Nott'm Forest 1 1 0 0 +3 3
17 Southampton 1 1 0 0 +3 3
18 Brighton 1 1 0 0 +3 3
19 Preston 2 1 0 1 +2 3
20 Portsmouth 2 1 0 1 +2 3
21 Leeds 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 Crystal Palace 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 Brentford 1 1 0 0 +2 3
24 Bolton 2 1 0 1 +1 3
25 Grimsby 2 1 0 1 +1 3
26 Walsall 2 1 0 1 +1 3
27 Peterborough 2 1 0 1 +1 3
28 Wolves 1 1 0 0 +1 3
29 Newcastle 1 1 0 0 +1 3
30 Burnley 1 1 0 0 +1 3
31 Everton 1 1 0 0 +1 3
32 Shrewsbury 2 1 0 1 +0 3
33 Bradford 2 1 0 1 +0 3
34 Rotherham 2 1 0 1 +0 3
35 Fleetwood Town 2 1 0 1 +0 3
36 West Brom 2 1 0 1 +0 3
37 Wycombe 2 1 0 1 -1 3
38 Rochdale 2 1 0 1 -1 3
39 Forest Green 2 1 0 1 -1 3
40 Barnsley 2 1 0 1 -1 3
41 Colchester 2 1 0 1 -1 3
42 Cambridge United 2 1 0 1 -2 3
43 Norwich 2 0 2 0 +0 2
44 Barrow 2 0 2 0 +0 2
45 Birmingham 1 0 1 0 +0 1
46 Swansea 1 0 1 0 +0 1
47 Accrington ST 1 0 1 0 +0 1
48 Bournemouth 1 0 1 0 +0 1
49 QPR 1 0 1 0 +0 1
50 Blackpool 1 0 1 0 +0 1
51 Stoke 1 0 1 0 +0 1
52 Leicester 1 0 1 0 +0 1
53 Tranmere 2 0 1 1 -1 1
54 Oxford 2 0 1 1 -2 1
55 Carlisle 1 0 0 1 -1 0
56 Luton 1 0 0 1 -1 0
57 Northampton 1 0 0 1 -1 0
58 Hull 1 0 0 1 -1 0
59 Mansfield Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
60 Reading 1 0 0 1 -1 0
61 Port Vale 1 0 0 1 -1 0
62 Millwall 1 0 0 1 -1 0
63 Ipswich 1 0 0 1 -1 0
64 Wigan 1 0 0 1 -1 0
65 Sutton Utd 1 0 0 1 -1 0
66 Bristol Rovers 1 0 0 1 -1 0
67 Harrogate Town 1 0 0 1 -1 0
68 Middlesbrough 1 0 0 1 -1 0
69 Sheffield United 1 0 0 1 -1 0
70 AFC Wimbledon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
71 Burton Albion 1 0 0 1 -2 0
72 Swindon Town 1 0 0 1 -2 0
73 Leyton Orient 1 0 0 1 -2 0
74 Sunderland 1 0 0 1 -2 0
75 Plymouth 1 0 0 1 -2 0
76 Watford 1 0 0 1 -2 0
77 Fulham 1 0 0 1 -2 0
78 Huddersfield 1 0 0 1 -3 0
79 Coventry 1 0 0 1 -3 0
80 Cardiff 1 0 0 1 -3 0
81 Doncaster 1 0 0 1 -3 0
82 Salford City 1 0 0 1 -4 0
83 Crewe 1 0 0 1 -4 0
84 Hartlepool 1 0 0 1 -4 0
85 Cheltenham 1 0 0 1 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.