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Bundesliga

Referee: D Siebert

Dortmund

T S S S S

3–2

Full-time

RB Leipzig

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 58%

55%

61%

Points per game

1,8

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

71%

52%

Both score Ø 53%

61%

45%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,8

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,0

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

15 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 7

4 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 5. · RB Leipzig 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	31	22	5	4	+46	71
2	RB Leipzig	31	19	7	5	+30	64
3	Wolfsburg	31	16	9	6	+22	57
4	Ein Frankfurt	31	15	11	5	+15	56
5	Dortmund	31	17	4	10	+24	55
6	Leverkusen	31	14	8	9	+16	50
7	M'gladbach	31	12	10	9	+13	46
8	Union Berlin	31	11	13	7	+9	46
9	Stuttgart	32	11	9	12	+2	42
10	Freiburg	31	11	8	12	-1	41
11	Hoffenheim	31	9	9	13	-5	36
12	Mainz	31	9	8	14	-16	35
13	Augsburg	32	9	6	17	-17	33
14	Hertha	30	7	9	14	-11	30
15	Werder Bremen	31	7	9	15	-17	30
16	Bielefeld	31	8	6	17	-28	30
17	FC Koln	31	7	8	16	-24	29
18	Schalke 04	30	2	7	21	-58	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	4	0	+34	37
2	RB Leipzig	16	11	3	2	+16	36
3	Ein Frankfurt	15	9	6	0	+15	33
4	Wolfsburg	15	9	4	2	+14	31
5	Dortmund	15	9	2	4	+17	29
6	Union Berlin	16	7	8	1	+13	29
7	M'gladbach	16	8	4	4	+14	28
8	Leverkusen	16	8	4	4	+12	28
9	Freiburg	16	7	5	4	+10	26
10	Hoffenheim	15	6	3	6	+5	21
11	Stuttgart	16	5	6	5	+3	21
12	Augsburg	16	5	4	7	-6	19
13	Bielefeld	16	6	1	9	-10	19
14	Hertha	15	5	3	7	-5	18
15	Mainz	16	4	4	8	-8	16
16	Werder Bremen	15	3	4	8	-10	13
17	FC Koln	15	2	5	8	-9	11
18	Schalke 04	15	2	3	10	-20	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	11	1	4	+12	34
2	RB Leipzig	15	8	4	3	+14	28
3	Wolfsburg	16	7	5	4	+8	26
4	Dortmund	16	8	2	6	+7	26
5	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	5	5	+0	23
6	Leverkusen	15	6	4	5	+4	22
7	Stuttgart	16	6	3	7	-1	21
8	Mainz	15	5	4	6	-8	19
9	M'gladbach	15	4	6	5	-1	18
10	FC Koln	16	5	3	8	-15	18
11	Union Berlin	15	4	5	6	-4	17
12	Werder Bremen	16	4	5	7	-7	17
13	Hoffenheim	16	3	6	7	-10	15
14	Freiburg	15	4	3	8	-11	15
15	Augsburg	16	4	2	10	-11	14
16	Hertha	15	2	6	7	-6	12
17	Bielefeld	15	2	5	8	-18	11
18	Schalke 04	15	0	4	11	-38	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.