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Championship

Referee: M Dean

Derby

T T T T T

3–3

Full-time

Sheffield Weds

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Sheffield Weds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

0,7

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,0

This season — Championship · 45/45 matches

Win Ø 26%

24%

27%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

33%

36%

Both score Ø 37%

33%

40%

Average goals

2,0

2,1

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

39% Possession 61%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 10

5 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 22. · Sheffield Weds 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	45	29	9	7	+39	96
2	Watford	45	26	10	9	+31	88
3	Brentford	42	21	14	7	+33	77
4	Bournemouth	43	22	11	10	+31	77
5	Barnsley	43	23	8	12	+12	77
6	Swansea	42	21	10	11	+15	73
7	Reading	45	19	12	14	+8	69
8	Cardiff	45	18	13	14	+17	67
9	QPR	45	18	11	16	+0	65
10	Middlesbrough	45	18	10	17	+5	64
11	Millwall	45	15	17	13	+0	62
12	Luton	45	17	11	17	-9	62
13	Preston	45	17	7	21	-8	58
14	Stoke	45	14	15	16	-4	57
15	Blackburn	45	14	12	19	+8	54
16	Nott'm Forest	45	12	16	17	-7	52
17	Coventry	45	13	13	19	-17	52
18	Birmingham	45	13	13	19	-21	52
19	Bristol City	45	15	6	24	-20	51
20	Huddersfield	45	12	12	21	-21	48
21	Sheffield Weds	45	12	10	23	-21	46
22	Derby	45	11	10	24	-22	43
23	Rotherham	45	11	8	26	-16	41
24	Wycombe	45	10	10	25	-33	40

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	22	18	2	2	+30	56
2	Norwich	23	14	6	3	+24	48
3	Bournemouth	21	13	3	5	+19	42
4	Brentford	21	11	8	2	+18	41
5	Barnsley	21	12	5	4	+10	41
6	Reading	22	12	3	7	+10	39
7	Swansea	22	11	6	5	+9	39
8	Middlesbrough	22	11	4	7	+8	37
9	QPR	22	10	4	8	+3	34
10	Coventry	22	9	7	6	+3	34
11	Luton	23	8	9	6	+2	33
12	Sheffield Weds	23	8	8	7	+5	32
13	Stoke	23	9	5	9	+1	32
14	Blackburn	22	8	7	7	+6	31
15	Huddersfield	23	8	7	8	+5	31
16	Millwall	23	7	10	6	+0	31
17	Cardiff	22	8	5	9	+11	29
18	Nott'm Forest	22	6	8	8	-2	26
19	Preston	23	7	5	11	-3	26
20	Wycombe	23	7	5	11	-11	26
21	Derby	22	6	6	10	-6	24
22	Bristol City	22	7	3	12	-10	24
23	Birmingham	23	6	4	13	-19	22
24	Rotherham	23	5	4	14	-9	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	22	15	3	4	+15	48
2	Cardiff	23	10	8	5	+6	38
3	Brentford	21	10	6	5	+15	36
4	Barnsley	22	11	3	8	+2	36
5	Bournemouth	22	9	8	5	+12	35
6	Swansea	20	10	4	6	+6	34
7	Watford	23	8	8	7	+1	32
8	Preston	22	10	2	10	-5	32
9	Millwall	22	8	7	7	+0	31
10	QPR	23	8	7	8	-3	31
11	Reading	23	7	9	7	-2	30
12	Birmingham	22	7	9	6	-2	30
13	Luton	22	9	2	11	-11	29
14	Middlesbrough	23	7	6	10	-3	27
15	Bristol City	23	8	3	12	-10	27
16	Nott'm Forest	23	6	8	9	-5	26
17	Stoke	22	5	10	7	-5	25
18	Blackburn	23	6	5	12	+2	23
19	Rotherham	22	6	4	12	-7	22
20	Derby	23	5	4	14	-16	19
21	Coventry	23	4	6	13	-20	18
22	Huddersfield	22	4	5	13	-26	17
23	Wycombe	22	3	5	14	-22	14
24	Sheffield Weds	22	4	2	16	-26	14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.