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Bundesliga

Referee: Deniz Aytekin

RB Leipzig

S T S T S

0–1

Full-time

Dortmund

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 65%

53%

76%

Points per game

1,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

53%

76%

Both score Ø 56%

41%

71%

Average goals

2,8

3,6

Scored

1,8

2,6

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

47% Possession 53%

12 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 7

3 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 4. · Dortmund 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	17	13	3	1	+26	42
2	Bayern Munich	18	12	3	3	+20	39
3	M'gladbach	18	11	3	4	+19	36
4	RB Leipzig	17	9	4	4	+14	31
5	Ein Frankfurt	18	9	3	6	+13	30
6	Wolfsburg	17	8	4	5	+5	28
7	Hoffenheim	18	6	7	5	+7	25
8	Werder Bremen	18	7	4	7	+0	25
9	Hertha	17	6	6	5	-1	24
10	Leverkusen	18	7	3	8	-4	24
11	Mainz	18	6	6	6	-4	24
12	Freiburg	18	5	6	7	-6	21
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	18	6	3	9	-13	21
14	Schalke 04	17	5	3	9	-4	18
15	Augsburg	18	3	6	9	-5	15
16	Stuttgart	18	4	2	12	-24	14
17	Hannover	18	2	5	11	-19	11
18	Nurnberg	17	2	5	10	-24	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	9	8	1	0	+18	25
2	M'gladbach	8	8	0	0	+20	24
3	RB Leipzig	9	7	2	0	+18	23
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	1	3	+10	16
5	Bayern Munich	8	4	3	1	+5	15
6	Hertha	8	4	3	1	+3	15
7	Hoffenheim	10	3	4	3	+3	13
8	Freiburg	9	3	4	2	+2	13
9	Mainz	9	3	4	2	+1	13
10	Leverkusen	9	4	1	4	-2	13
11	Werder Bremen	9	3	3	3	-1	12
12	Wolfsburg	9	3	3	3	-1	12
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	4	0	5	-1	12
14	Stuttgart	9	3	1	5	-10	10
15	Schalke 04	8	3	0	5	-2	9
16	Nurnberg	9	2	3	4	-2	9
17	Augsburg	9	1	4	4	-2	7
18	Hannover	9	2	1	6	-8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	8	0	2	+15	24
2	Dortmund	8	5	2	1	+8	17
3	Wolfsburg	8	5	1	2	+6	16
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+3	14
5	Werder Bremen	9	4	1	4	+1	13
6	Hoffenheim	8	3	3	2	+4	12
7	M'gladbach	10	3	3	4	-1	12
8	Leverkusen	9	3	2	4	-2	11
9	Mainz	9	3	2	4	-5	11
10	Schalke 04	9	2	3	4	-2	9
11	Hertha	9	2	3	4	-4	9
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	2	3	4	-12	9
13	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-3	8
14	RB Leipzig	8	2	2	4	-4	8
15	Freiburg	9	2	2	5	-8	8
16	Hannover	9	0	4	5	-11	4
17	Stuttgart	9	1	1	7	-14	4
18	Nurnberg	8	0	2	6	-22	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.