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Premier League

Referee: K Friend

Liverpool

S S S U U

2–0

Full-time

Southampton

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,8

Scored

1,3

Conceded

0,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 38%

45%

30%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 52%

55%

48%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

54% Possession 46%

14 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 7. · Southampton 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	35	25	5	5	+46	80
2	Man United	33	19	10	4	+29	67
3	Chelsea	35	18	10	7	+23	64
4	Leicester	35	19	6	10	+20	63
5	West Ham	34	17	7	10	+11	58
6	Tottenham	35	16	8	11	+20	56
7	Liverpool	33	15	9	9	+16	54
8	Everton	33	15	7	11	+3	52
9	Leeds	35	15	5	15	+0	50
10	Arsenal	34	14	7	13	+9	49
11	Aston Villa	33	14	6	13	+10	48
12	Wolves	34	11	9	14	-13	42
13	Crystal Palace	34	11	8	15	-20	41
14	Newcastle	35	10	9	16	-18	39
15	Brighton	34	8	13	13	-4	37
16	Southampton	33	10	7	16	-18	37
17	Burnley	34	9	9	16	-16	36
18	Fulham	34	5	12	17	-20	27
19	West Brom	34	5	11	18	-34	26
20	Sheffield United	35	5	2	28	-44	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	12	2	4	+21	38
2	West Ham	17	9	4	4	+8	31
3	Tottenham	17	9	3	5	+14	30
4	Man United	16	9	3	4	+13	30
5	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	+13	30
6	Leicester	18	9	1	8	+6	28
7	Liverpool	17	8	3	6	+5	27
8	Leeds	18	7	5	6	+5	26
9	Arsenal	17	6	4	7	-1	22
10	Wolves	17	6	4	7	-4	22
11	Aston Villa	16	6	3	7	+3	21
12	Southampton	16	6	3	7	+1	21
13	Newcastle	17	5	5	7	-7	20
14	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-11	20
15	Everton	17	5	4	8	-4	19
16	Burnley	17	4	6	7	-6	18
17	Brighton	17	3	8	6	-1	17
18	West Brom	17	3	6	8	-21	15
19	Sheffield United	18	4	1	13	-16	13
20	Fulham	17	2	4	11	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	3	1	+25	42
2	Man United	17	10	7	0	+16	37
3	Leicester	17	10	5	2	+14	35
4	Chelsea	18	10	4	4	+10	34
5	Everton	16	10	3	3	+7	33
6	Liverpool	16	7	6	3	+11	27
7	Arsenal	17	8	3	6	+10	27
8	Aston Villa	17	8	3	6	+7	27
9	West Ham	17	8	3	6	+3	27
10	Tottenham	18	7	5	6	+6	26
11	Leeds	17	8	0	9	-5	24
12	Crystal Palace	17	6	3	8	-9	21
13	Brighton	17	5	5	7	-3	20
14	Wolves	17	5	5	7	-9	20
15	Newcastle	18	5	4	9	-11	19
16	Burnley	17	5	3	9	-10	18
17	Fulham	17	3	8	6	-5	17
18	Southampton	17	4	4	9	-19	16
19	West Brom	17	2	5	10	-13	11
20	Sheffield United	17	1	1	15	-28	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.