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Bundesliga

Referee: D Siebert

RB Leipzig

U S S U S

1–3

Full-time

Dortmund

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 61%

64%

57%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

43%

64%

Both score Ø 47%

43%

50%

Average goals

2,4

3,3

Scored

1,8

2,0

Conceded

0,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

12 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 2. · Dortmund 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	10	3	2	+22	33
2	RB Leipzig	14	9	4	1	+16	31
3	Leverkusen	15	8	5	2	+15	29
4	Union Berlin	15	6	7	2	+11	25
5	Dortmund	14	8	1	5	+10	25
6	Wolfsburg	15	6	7	2	+5	25
7	M'gladbach	15	6	6	3	+4	24
8	Freiburg	15	6	5	4	+4	23
9	Ein Frankfurt	15	5	8	2	+2	23
10	Augsburg	14	5	4	5	-3	19
11	Stuttgart	14	4	6	4	+5	18
12	Hertha	14	4	4	6	-1	16
13	Werder Bremen	15	3	6	6	-7	15
14	Hoffenheim	15	4	3	8	-8	15
15	FC Koln	15	2	5	8	-14	11
16	Bielefeld	14	3	1	10	-15	10
17	Schalke 04	15	1	4	10	-27	7
18	Mainz	15	1	3	11	-19	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+18	17
3	Wolfsburg	7	5	2	0	+6	17
4	Union Berlin	8	3	4	1	+8	13
5	M'gladbach	8	3	4	1	+4	13
6	Freiburg	8	3	3	2	+6	12
7	Dortmund	7	4	0	3	+6	12
8	Leverkusen	7	3	3	1	+5	12
9	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	5	0	+2	11
10	Hertha	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Augsburg	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-1	7
13	Bielefeld	7	2	0	5	-6	6
14	Schalke 04	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Werder Bremen	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	Stuttgart	7	0	4	3	-4	4
17	Mainz	8	0	2	6	-9	2
18	FC Koln	8	0	2	6	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leverkusen	8	5	2	1	+10	17
2	Bayern Munich	8	5	1	2	+4	16
3	Stuttgart	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Dortmund	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Union Berlin	7	3	3	1	+3	12
6	RB Leipzig	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	3	2	+0	12
8	M'gladbach	7	3	2	2	+0	11
9	Augsburg	7	3	2	2	+0	11
10	Freiburg	7	3	2	2	-2	11
11	Werder Bremen	8	2	4	2	-1	10
12	FC Koln	7	2	3	2	-4	9
13	Hertha	7	2	2	3	+1	8
14	Wolfsburg	8	1	5	2	-1	8
15	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-7	8
16	Bielefeld	7	1	1	5	-9	4
17	Mainz	7	1	1	5	-10	4
18	Schalke 04	7	0	2	5	-21	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.