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Conference League
Referee: António Nobre
Celje
U T S U S
1–0
Full-time
Lugano
T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celje Lugano
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,7
2,7
Scored
1,8
1,2
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 10/6 matches
Win Ø 54%
40%
67%
Points per game
1,4
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
70%
67%
Both score Ø 60%
70%
50%
Average goals
3,8
3,0
Scored
2,1
1,8
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,34 xG 1,68
46% Possession 54%
6 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 5
1 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Celje Lugano
16′
🟨 Albian Hajdari
1–0 T. Svetlin ⚽
L. Delaurier-Chaubet
23′
Half-time 1–0
M. Dulca 🔁
↦ M. Kvesić
46′
Armandas Kučys 🟨
52′
59′
🟨 Mattia Bottani
62′
🔁 K. Przybyłko
↦ G. Koutsias
D. Vukliševič 🔁
↦ Ł. Bejger
72′
80′
🔁 Y. Cimignani
↦ M. Bottani
Edmilson 🔁
↦ A. Kučys
84′
N. Kouter 🔁
↦ T. Svetlin
89′
91′
🟥 Antonios Papadopoulos
Klemen Nemanič 🟨
94′
95′
🔁 Daniel Dos Santos
↦ M. Valenzuela
95′
🔁 A. El Wafi
↦ R. Steffen
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Celje

4-1-4-1
41 Ricardo Silva G
2 Juanjo Nieto D
44 Ł. Bejger D
81 K. Nemanič D
23 Ž. Karničnik D
19 M. Zabukovnik M
35 L. Delaurier-Chaubet M
11 S. Sešlar M
16 M. Kvesić M
88 T. Svetlin M
47 A. Kučys F
Bench (7)
4 M. Dulca
3 D. Vukliševič
30 Edmilson
10 N. Kouter
7 A. Matko
12 L. Kolar
5 C. Lhernault

Coach: Albert Riera

Lugano

3-4-3
1 A. Saipi G
6 A. Papadopoulos D
17 L. Mai D
5 A. Hajdari D
46 M. Zanotti M
29 H. Mahmoud M
8 A. Grgic M
23 M. Valenzuela M
11 R. Steffen F
70 G. Koutsias F
10 M. Bottani F
Bench (11)
93 K. Przybyłko
21 Y. Cimignani
27 Daniel Dos Santos
22 A. El Wafi
99 D. Mina
2 Z. Brault-Guillard
26 Martim Marques
20 O. Doumbia
28 Y. Ryter
47 I. Maslarov
58 S. Osigwe

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

António Nobre · 138 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
29,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,35 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.