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Bundesliga

Referee: J Weinberger

Sturm Graz

U T T S T

2–1

Full-time

Grazer AK

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Grazer AK

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 37%

53%

20%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

53%

60%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,52 xG 1,46

46% Possession 54%

15 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 5

1 Offside 4

17 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sturm Graz 3. · Grazer AK 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	16	8	5	3	+14	+4.3	29
2	LASK	16	8	2	6	+2	-1.1	26
3	Sturm Graz	15	8	1	6	+5	+4.6	25
4	Wolfsberger AC	16	7	3	6	+5	-2.0	24
5	SK Rapid	16	7	3	6	+0	-1.4	24
6	Hartberg	16	6	5	5	+3	-2.5	23
7	Austria Vienna	16	7	2	7	-3	-1.8	23
8	Ried	16	7	2	7	-3	-1.7	23
9	Altach	16	5	6	5	+2	+1.0	21
10	Tirol	16	5	6	5	-1	+5.4	21
11	Grazer AK	15	3	6	6	-10	-1.4	15
12	BW Linz	16	3	1	12	-14	-3.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	LASK	8	5	1	2	+4	-0.7	16
2	Salzburg	8	4	2	2	+9	+2.5	14
3	Wolfsberger AC	9	4	1	4	+2	-0.1	13
4	Altach	8	3	4	1	+2	+2.1	13
5	Tirol	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.3	11
6	Ried	8	3	2	3	-2	-0.9	11
7	Grazer AK	8	2	4	2	-1	+2.3	10
8	SK Rapid	8	3	1	4	-1	-0.5	10
9	Austria Vienna	8	3	1	4	-5	-0.4	10
10	Hartberg	7	2	2	3	+0	-1.2	8
11	BW Linz	8	2	0	6	-4	-1.2	6
12	Sturm Graz	7	1	1	5	-7	+1.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	8	7	0	1	+12	+3.6	21
2	Salzburg	8	4	3	1	+5	+1.8	15
3	Hartberg	9	4	3	2	+3	-1.3	15
4	SK Rapid	8	4	2	2	+1	-0.8	14
5	Austria Vienna	8	4	1	3	+2	-1.4	13
6	Ried	8	4	0	4	-1	-0.8	12
7	Wolfsberger AC	7	3	2	2	+3	-1.9	11
8	Tirol	8	2	4	2	-2	+3.1	10
9	LASK	8	3	1	4	-2	-0.4	10
10	Altach	8	2	2	4	+0	-1.1	8
11	Grazer AK	7	1	2	4	-9	-3.7	5
12	BW Linz	8	1	1	6	-10	-2.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.