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Serie B

Referee: Simone Sozza

Sampdoria

U T T S T

3–2

Full-time

Carrarese

T T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sampdoria Carrarese

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 18%

14%

21%

Points per game

0,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

36%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

57%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,18 xG 0,76

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

21 Free kicks against 13

7 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sampdoria 19. · Carrarese 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monza	14	9	3	2	+11	+5.5	30
2	Frosinone	14	8	4	2	+13	+4.7	28
3	Palermo	15	7	5	3	+13	+0.2	26
4	Modena	14	7	5	2	+12	+3.0	26
5	Cesena	14	8	2	4	+6	+0.9	26
6	Venezia	14	7	4	3	+13	+5.0	25
7	Empoli	15	5	5	5	+2	+3.2	20
8	Catanzaro	14	4	7	3	+2	-1.2	19
9	Juve Stabia	14	4	7	3	-1	-2.0	19
10	Avellino	14	5	4	5	-8	-1.8	19
11	Reggiana	14	4	5	5	-1	+1.1	17
12	Padova	14	4	5	5	-3	-2.2	17
13	Carrarese	14	3	7	4	-3	-4.4	16
14	Virtus Entella	14	3	6	5	-6	-1.7	15
15	Mantova	14	4	2	8	-9	-1.0	14
16	Bari	14	3	5	6	-11	-4.8	14
17	Sudtirol	14	2	7	5	-4	-2.5	13
18	Spezia	14	2	5	7	-7	+1.3	11
19	Sampdoria	14	2	4	8	-8	-0.3	10
20	Pescara	14	1	6	7	-11	-2.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	7	6	0	1	+13	+3.8	18
2	Monza	7	6	0	1	+6	+0.5	18
3	Modena	7	5	2	0	+10	+1.6	17
4	Palermo	8	4	3	1	+10	+2.8	15
5	Empoli	9	3	5	1	+6	+2.8	14
6	Virtus Entella	7	3	4	0	+4	+1.1	13
7	Juve Stabia	7	3	4	0	+4	-0.9	13
8	Catanzaro	8	3	4	1	+2	+0.2	13
9	Reggiana	7	3	3	1	+4	-0.4	12
10	Frosinone	6	3	2	1	+7	+1.8	11
11	Cesena	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.4	11
12	Bari	6	3	2	1	+2	-2.8	11
13	Mantova	7	3	1	3	-3	+1.9	10
14	Avellino	6	3	1	2	-3	-0.4	10
15	Carrarese	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.5	9
16	Sampdoria	7	2	2	3	+0	+1.0	8
17	Pescara	8	1	4	3	-1	-2.9	7
18	Sudtirol	7	2	1	4	-1	-0.9	7
19	Padova	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.3	6
20	Spezia	8	1	3	4	-5	+1.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	8	5	2	1	+6	+2.9	17
2	Cesena	8	5	0	3	+2	-0.5	15
3	Monza	7	3	3	1	+5	+5.0	12
4	Palermo	7	3	2	2	+3	-2.6	11
5	Padova	8	3	2	3	-1	-1.0	11
6	Modena	7	2	3	2	+2	+1.4	9
7	Avellino	8	2	3	3	-5	-1.5	9
8	Venezia	7	1	4	2	+0	+1.3	7
9	Carrarese	7	1	4	2	-4	-2.9	7
10	Catanzaro	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.3	6
11	Sudtirol	7	0	6	1	-3	-1.6	6
12	Empoli	6	2	0	4	-4	+0.4	6
13	Juve Stabia	7	1	3	3	-5	-1.0	6
14	Spezia	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.6	5
15	Reggiana	7	1	2	4	-5	+1.5	5
16	Mantova	7	1	1	5	-6	-2.9	4
17	Bari	8	0	3	5	-13	-2.0	3
18	Sampdoria	7	0	2	5	-8	-1.3	2
19	Pescara	6	0	2	4	-10	–	2
20	Virtus Entella	7	0	2	5	-10	-2.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.