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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

Sparta Rotterdam

S T T U T

1–0

Full-time

NAC Breda

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sparta Rotterdam NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 29%

36%

21%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

57%

64%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,1

Conceded

2,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,43 xG 2,26

41% Possession 59%

12 Shots 22

6 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 3

8 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 14

4 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sparta Rotterdam 11. · NAC Breda 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	13	1	1	+29	+13.8	40
2	Feyenoord	15	11	1	3	+23	+21.4	34
3	Nijmegen	15	8	3	4	+14	+5.1	27
4	AZ Alkmaar	15	7	4	4	+4	+9.3	25
5	Ajax	14	6	5	3	+6	+1.1	23
6	Groningen	14	7	2	5	+2	+7.0	23
7	Utrecht	14	6	3	5	+6	-2.3	21
8	Twente	15	5	6	4	+3	+11.5	21
9	Go Ahead Eagles	15	4	6	5	-1	-7.2	18
10	For Sittard	15	5	3	7	-4	-3.9	18
11	Sparta Rotterdam	14	5	2	7	-12	-5.9	17
12	Heerenveen	14	4	4	6	-3	+10.5	16
13	Excelsior	15	5	1	9	-12	-11.1	16
14	Zwolle	15	4	4	7	-17	-14.8	16
15	Volendam	15	3	5	7	-8	-10.3	14
16	Heracles	15	4	2	9	-14	-10.2	14
17	NAC Breda	14	3	3	8	-8	-6.3	12
18	Telstar	15	2	5	8	-8	-7.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	8	6	0	2	+10	+13.5	18
2	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.9	16
3	Nijmegen	7	5	1	1	+11	+6.4	16
4	Utrecht	7	5	1	1	+10	+3.0	16
5	For Sittard	8	4	2	2	+2	+4.3	14
6	Ajax	7	4	1	2	+4	+5.3	13
7	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	3	1	+3	+5.1	12
8	Volendam	8	3	3	2	+3	+0.4	12
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	3	1	+3	-0.2	12
10	Heerenveen	8	3	3	2	+1	+8.8	12
11	Groningen	7	3	2	2	+4	+4.8	11
12	Twente	7	3	2	2	+0	+6.7	11
13	Heracles	7	3	1	3	+0	-0.3	10
14	NAC Breda	7	3	1	3	+0	+3.1	10
15	Zwolle	7	3	1	3	-5	-3.1	10
16	Excelsior	8	3	0	5	-3	-6.0	9
17	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	2	3	-7	-3.2	8
18	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-4	+0.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+17	+4.9	24
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+13	+7.9	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+1	+4.2	13
4	Groningen	7	4	0	3	-2	+2.2	12
5	Nijmegen	8	3	2	3	+3	-1.3	11
6	Twente	8	2	4	2	+3	+4.9	10
7	Ajax	7	2	4	1	+2	-4.2	10
8	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.7	9
9	Excelsior	7	2	1	4	-9	-5.0	7
10	Go Ahead Eagles	8	1	3	4	-4	-6.9	6
11	Zwolle	8	1	3	4	-12	-11.7	6
12	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	-4	-5.2	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	-4	-8.3	5
14	Heerenveen	6	1	1	4	-4	+1.7	4
15	For Sittard	7	1	1	5	-6	-8.2	4
16	Heracles	8	1	1	6	-14	-9.9	4
17	NAC Breda	7	0	2	5	-8	-9.4	2
18	Volendam	7	0	2	5	-11	-10.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.