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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Man City

S S S U S

5–0

Full-time

Liverpool

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

2,5

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+2,0

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,7

2,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

66% Possession 34%

13 Shots 7

10 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 3

5 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Man City 4. · Liverpool 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Huddersfield	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Man City	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Watford	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Southampton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Stoke	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Everton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Swansea	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	+0	3
15	Leicester	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Arsenal	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Brighton	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Bournemouth	3	0	0	3	-4	0
19	Crystal Palace	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Huddersfield	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Watford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Man City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-4	0
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Man United	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Watford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Everton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Brighton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Arsenal	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.