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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Man City

T S T T S

2–1

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

1,8

3,5

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+3,0

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 80%

75%

85%

Points per game

2,4

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

70%

55%

Both score Ø 48%

55%

40%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,7

2,4

Conceded

0,8

0,4

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 7

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Liverpool 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	20	17	3	0	+40	54
2	Tottenham	21	16	0	5	+25	48
3	Man City	20	15	2	3	+38	47
4	Chelsea	21	13	5	3	+22	44
5	Arsenal	21	12	5	4	+15	41
6	Man United	21	11	5	5	+11	38
7	Leicester	21	9	4	8	+2	31
8	Watford	21	8	5	8	-1	29
9	Wolves	21	8	5	8	-2	29
10	West Ham	21	8	4	9	-3	28
11	Everton	21	7	6	8	+0	27
12	Bournemouth	21	8	3	10	-9	27
13	Brighton	21	7	5	9	-5	26
14	Crystal Palace	21	6	4	11	-7	22
15	Newcastle	21	4	6	11	-14	18
16	Burnley	21	5	3	13	-21	18
17	Cardiff	21	5	3	13	-22	18
18	Southampton	21	3	7	11	-17	16
19	Fulham	21	3	5	13	-28	14
20	Huddersfield	21	2	4	15	-24	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	9	1	0	+24	28
2	Man City	10	9	0	1	+26	27
3	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	Chelsea	11	6	4	1	+11	22
5	Man United	10	6	3	1	+8	21
6	Tottenham	9	6	0	3	+9	18
7	Brighton	10	5	3	2	+4	18
8	Bournemouth	11	5	3	3	+2	18
9	Everton	11	5	3	3	+2	18
10	Watford	11	5	1	5	-2	16
11	Leicester	10	4	2	4	+2	14
12	West Ham	11	4	2	5	-2	14
13	Wolves	11	4	2	5	-3	14
14	Cardiff	11	4	1	6	-10	13
15	Fulham	10	3	3	4	-7	12
16	Burnley	10	3	1	6	-8	10
17	Crystal Palace	10	2	3	5	-4	9
18	Southampton	10	1	5	4	-6	8
19	Newcastle	11	2	1	8	-10	7
20	Huddersfield	11	1	2	8	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	12	10	0	2	+16	30
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Chelsea	10	7	1	2	+11	22
4	Man City	10	6	2	2	+12	20
5	Man United	11	5	2	4	+3	17
6	Leicester	11	5	2	4	+0	17
7	Arsenal	10	4	3	3	+1	15
8	Wolves	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	West Ham	10	4	2	4	-1	14
10	Watford	10	3	4	3	+1	13
11	Crystal Palace	11	4	1	6	-3	13
12	Newcastle	10	2	5	3	-4	11
13	Everton	10	2	3	5	-2	9
14	Bournemouth	10	3	0	7	-11	9
15	Brighton	11	2	2	7	-9	8
16	Southampton	11	2	2	7	-11	8
17	Burnley	11	2	2	7	-13	8
18	Cardiff	10	1	2	7	-12	5
19	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-13	5
20	Fulham	11	0	2	9	-21	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.