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U S S S U

4–1

Full-time

T T T S T

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano St. Gallen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

xG conceded Pro

This season — Super League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 65%

86%

43%

Points per game

2,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

86%

71%

Both score Ø 64%

71%

57%

Average goals

3,6

3,7

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

0,9

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-0,3

xG conceded Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 21

8 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 8

1 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lugano 1. · St. Gallen 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	7	6	1	0	+13	+2.5	19
2	Sion	8	6	0	2	+9	+4.2	18
3	Young Boys	8	4	4	0	+12	+5.5	16
4	Basel	8	4	1	3	+2	-0.5	13
5	St. Gallen	7	3	1	3	-2	+4.2	10
6	Zurich	8	3	1	4	-6	-5.0	10
7	Luzern	8	2	3	3	-5	-2.8	9
8	Grasshoppers	8	2	2	4	-7	+3.1	8
9	Servette	7	2	1	4	-3	+1.0	7
10	Thun	7	2	1	4	-7	-5.2	7
11	Vaduz	8	2	0	6	-2	-3.6	6
12	Lausanne	8	1	3	4	-4	-3.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	4	3	1	0	+7	+2.0	10
2	Sion	4	3	0	1	+4	+4.8	9
3	Young Boys	4	2	2	0	+4	+3.5	8
4	Vaduz	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.3	6
5	Zurich	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
6	Luzern	4	2	0	2	-2	+2.9	6
7	Servette	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.5	4
8	St. Gallen	4	1	1	2	-3	+4.0	4
9	Grasshoppers	4	1	1	2	-4	+3.5	4
10	Basel	4	1	0	3	-2	-1.1	3
11	Lausanne	4	0	2	2	-2	-0.1	2
12	Thun	3	0	1	2	-7	-2.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Basel	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.6	10
2	Lugano	3	3	0	0	+6	+0.5	9
3	Sion	4	3	0	1	+5	-0.6	9
4	Young Boys	4	2	2	0	+8	+2.0	8
5	St. Gallen	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.2	6
6	Thun	4	2	0	2	+0	-3.2	6
7	Lausanne	4	1	1	2	-2	-3.2	4
8	Grasshoppers	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.5	4
9	Zurich	4	1	1	2	-5	-4.8	4
10	Servette	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.6	3
11	Luzern	4	0	3	1	-3	-5.7	3
12	Vaduz	5	0	0	5	-6	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

10. May -26 Lugano – St. Gallen 1–2 17. Mar -26 St. Gallen – Lugano 1–1 26. Nov -25 Lugano – St. Gallen 1–3 13. Sep -25 St. Gallen – Lugano 1–0 13. Apr -25 Lugano – St. Gallen 1–1

Match report

Lugano St. Gallen

1–0 Beckham Castro ⚽

Antonios Papadopoulos

4′

Daniel Dos Santos Correia ℹ️

VAR: Goal confirmed

4′

2–0 Elias Pihlstrom ⚽

14′

Behruzjon Karimov 🟨

16′

3–0 Elias Pihlstrom ⚽

Joel Bichsel

28′

32′

🟨 Nevio Scherrer

4–0 Behruzjon Karimov ⚽

Lars Lukas Mai

36′

40′

🟨 Lukas Daschner

45′

🔁 Andrin Hunziker

↦ Nevio Scherrer

45′

🔁 Betim Fazliji

↦ Lukas Daschner

45′

🔁 Hugo Vandermersch

↦ Carlo Boukhalfa

Mattia Zanotti 🔁

↦ Behruzjon Karimov

45′

Half-time 4–0

Elias Pihlstrom 🟥

47′

Albian Ajeti 🔁

↦ Beckham Castro

55′

Uran Bislimi 🟨

58′

61′

🔁 Enoch owusu

↦ Joel Ruiz

67′

🔁 Diego Besio

↦ Aliou Balde

Ahmed Kendouci 🔁

↦ Daniel Dos Santos Correia

68′

71′

🟨 Chima Okoroji

74′

⚽ Andrin Hunziker 4–1

Colin Noah Kleine-Bekel

Albian Ajeti 🟨

77′

Damian Kelvin 🔁

↦ Yanis Cimignani

82′

Hannes Delcroix 🔁

↦ Uran Bislimi

82′

Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Lugano

4-2-3-1

28

F. Gebhardt G

2

B. Karimov D

17

L. Mai D

6

A. Papadopoulos D

18

J. Bichsel D

25

U. Bislimi M

8

A. Grgić M

21

Y. Cimignani M

27

Daniel Dos Santos M

24

E. Pihlström M

22

B. Castro F

Bench (9)

9 A. Ajeti

23 G. Ajdin

7 E. Alioski

3 H. Delcroix

4 D. Kelvin

14 A. Kendouci

30 D. Moncada

39 C. Ndiaye

46 M. Zanotti

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

St. Gallen

3-1-4-2

1

L. Zigi G

3

C. Kleine-Bekel D

4

J. Stanić D

36

C. Okoroji D

10

L. Daschner M

74

J. Ruiz M

64

M. Stevanovic M

11

C. Boukhalfa M

7

C. Witzig M

70

N. Scherrer F

14

A. Balde F

Bench (8)

28 H. Vandermersch

47 E. Owusu

9 A. Hunziker

68 M. Heydari

26 T. Gaal

23 B. Fazliji

31 D. Besio

25 L. Watkowiak

Coach: E. Maaßen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

2,00

🔒

Pinnacle 2,06 1xBet 2,02 Betano 2,02 Bet365 2,00 Betfair 2,00 Marathonbet 2,00 William Hill 2,00 BetVictor 1,95 SBO 1,87

U

3,88

🔒

Pinnacle 4,13 Bet365 4,00 Betano 3,95 Betfair 3,90 1xBet 3,88 Marathonbet 3,88 BetVictor 3,80 William Hill 3,80 SBO 3,46

B

3,15

🔒

Pinnacle 3,27 Bet365 3,20 Betfair 3,20 1xBet 3,15 Marathonbet 3,15 BetVictor 3,13 Betano 3,10 William Hill 3,10 SBO 3,04

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,10

🔒

U1,5

5,75

🔒

O2,5 ✓

1,40

🔒

U2,5

2,70

🔒

O3,5 ✓

2,10

🔒

U3,5

1,71

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

1,38

🔒

BLS nei

2,76

🔒

Recent matches

12. Sep SL 1 week ago

6. Sep SL 2 weeks ago

3. Sep SL 2 weeks ago

30. Aug SL 3 weeks ago

27. Aug ECL 3 weeks ago

Maccabi Tel Aviv

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.