The model's reading of the match in plain language: expected goals, favourite probability and what the form says.
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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Levante
Ath Bilbao
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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The markets where our estimate differs most from the odds — the core of Pro.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +17 | +9.6 | 15 |
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +11 | +10.4 | 15 |
| 3 |
Ath Madrid
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +8 | +3.3 | 13 |
| 4 |
Sevilla
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | -0.6 | 13 |
| 5 |
Betis
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | +0.3 | 12 |
| 6 |
Alaves
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +5 | +3.1 | 10 |
| 7 |
La Coruna
|
6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | -1.6 | 9 |
| 8 |
Espanol
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | -1.5 | 7 |
| 9 |
Ath Bilbao
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | -1.1 | 7 |
| 10 |
Santander
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +0 | +2.0 | 7 |
| 11 |
Vallecano
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | -5.0 | 7 |
| 12 |
Sociedad
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | -3.2 | 7 |
| 13 |
Osasuna
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | -0.6 | 7 |
| 14 |
Levante
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | -0.0 | 5 |
| 15 |
Getafe
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | -3.2 | 5 |
| 16 |
Celta
|
6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | -2.6 | 4 |
| 17 |
Valencia
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | -0.1 | 4 |
| 18 |
Malaga
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | -3.3 | 3 |
| 19 |
Villarreal
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | +0.6 | 2 |
| 20 |
Elche
|
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | -6.3 | 2 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
M. Ryan
G
Nacho Pérez
D
Dela
D
IfeanyiIfeanyi Ndukwe
D
Manu Sánchez
D
Jon Ander Olasagasti
M
Oriol Rey
M
E. Bardeli
M
Paco Cortés
F
Iván Romero
F
T. Fernández
F
Coach: Luís Castro
Unai Simón
G
J. Louis-Jean
D
Aitor Paredes
D
Aymeric Laporte
D
Yuri
D
Ruíz de Galarreta
M
Mikel Jauregizar
M
Robert Navarro
M
Oihan Sancet
M
Álex Berenguer
M
Maroan Sannadi
F
Coach: E. Terzić
Injuries and suspensions reported before the match. The final squad is only confirmed with the line-ups.
Etta Eyong
Injury
A. Primo
Shoulder Injury
Hugo Sotelo
Knee Injury
U. Egiluz
Knee Injury
D. Vivian
Hamstring Injury
Peio Canales
Muscle Injury
Gorka Guruzeta
Hamstring Injury
Bookmaker odds fetched 4 days ago — the market may have moved since.
Levante
Barcelona
Malaga
Levante
Levante
Betis
Osasuna
Levante
Espanol
Levante
Not assigned yet — referee appointments are usually published in the last 24 hours before kick-off, and the referee stats will appear here then.
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.