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Premiership
Referee: J Beaton
Falkirk
T U T T U
2–1
Full-time
Hearts
U U S S S
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Falkirk Hearts
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
0,8
1,8
Conceded
2,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premiership · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
0%
80%
Points per game
0,4
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
40%
100%
Both score Ø 70%
60%
80%
Average goals
2,0
3,4
Scored
0,6
2,4
Conceded
1,4
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

42% Possession 58%
13 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 4
0 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Falkirk 11. · Hearts 3. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Celtic 6 6 0 0 +11 +12.2 18
2 Rangers 6 4 1 1 +3 +2.3 13
3 Hearts 5 4 0 1 +7 +1.3 12
4 St Mirren 6 3 1 2 +2 +0.8 10
5 Motherwell 5 2 2 1 +3 +2.4 8
6 Dundee 6 2 1 3 +1 -2.2 7
7 ST Johnstone 6 2 1 3 -1 +0.2 7
8 Hibernian 5 2 0 3 -2 +1.2 6
9 Dundee United 6 1 2 3 -5 -1.3 5
10 Aberdeen 5 1 1 3 -5 -3.5 4
11 Falkirk 5 0 2 3 -4 -4.4 2
12 Kilmarnock 5 0 1 4 -10 -8.9 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

13. May -26 Hearts – Falkirk 3–0 21. Feb -26 Hearts – Falkirk 1–0 13. Dec -25 Falkirk – Hearts 0–2 27. Sep -25 Hearts – Falkirk 3–0

Match report

Falkirk Hearts
Finley Frank Barbrook 🟨
3′
1–0 Ben krauhaus ⚽
Ryan Strain
8′
22′
⚽ James wilson 1–1
Josh Mcpake
28′
🟨 Claudio Rafael Soares Braga
35′
🟨 Yan Dhanda
45′
🔁 Jerome Williams
↦ James wilson
Half-time 1–1
Ryan Strain 🟨
55′
Calvin Fodrey 🔁
↦ Ben krauhaus
57′
Owen Eames 🟨
67′
2–1 Owen Eames ⚽
68′
73′
🔁 Rogers Mato
↦ Josh Mcpake
73′
🔁 Sabah Kerjota
↦ Calvin Miller
73′
🔁 Stephen Kingsley
↦ Harry Milne
Calvin Fodrey 🟨
75′
77′
🟨 Jamie McCart
Ross Maclver 🔁
↦ Jacob Murrell
78′
Craig Sibbald 🔁
↦ Finley Frank Barbrook
79′
80′
🔁 Christian Dahle Borchgrevink
↦ Stuart Findlay
Deniss Meļņiks 🔁
↦ Owen Eames
86′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Falkirk

4-2-3-1
19 S. Bain G
22 R. Strain D
15 L. Neilson D
5 L. Henderson D
3 L. McCann D
16 Finley Frank Barbrook M
8 B. Spencer M
28 B. Krauhaus M
42 Owen Eames M
23 E. Ross M
24 J. Murrell F
Bench (9)
17 S. Tanser
47 A. Doherty
99 C. Fodrey
1 N. Hogarth
9 R. MacIver
4 J. McMillan
21 D. Meļņiks
7 Ben Parkinson
10 C. Sibbald

Coach: J. McGlynn

Hearts

4-2-3-1
1 B. Reus G
23 J. Altena D
5 J. McCart D
17 S. Findlay D
18 H. Milne D
31 Y. Dhanda M
78 L. Mendy M
7 C. Miller M
10 Cláudio Braga M
15 J. McPake M
21 J. Wilson F
Bench (9)
19 S. Guendouz
30 R. Fulton
74 R. Mato
3 S. Kingsley
29 S. Kerjota
11 P. Kabore
2 C. Borchgrevink
77 A. Ba-Sy
9 J. Williams

Coach: W. Vrancken

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,76
🔒
U
3,64
🔒
B
1,89
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
1,20
🔒
U1,5
4,10
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,70
🔒
U2,5
2,07
🔒
O3,5
2,75
🔒
U3,5 ✓
1,44
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
1,63
🔒
BLS nei
2,15
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

J Beaton · 161 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.