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Premiership

Referee: D Nicolson

Hearts

U S T S T

1–0

Full-time

Falkirk

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hearts Falkirk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 52%

63%

41%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

52%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,9

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,13 xG 0,44

49% Possession 51%

17 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hearts 1. · Falkirk 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	27	17	6	4	+26	+10.5	57
2	Rangers	27	15	10	2	+26	+9.2	55
3	Celtic	26	17	3	6	+22	+14.4	54
4	Motherwell	26	12	11	3	+22	+10.9	47
5	Hibernian	27	11	9	7	+12	+2.4	42
6	Falkirk	27	11	6	10	-3	+3.0	39
7	Dundee United	25	6	10	9	-9	-11.8	28
8	Aberdeen	25	8	4	13	-9	-10.7	28
9	Dundee	26	6	6	14	-19	-7.3	24
10	St Mirren	26	5	8	13	-16	+0.5	23
11	Kilmarnock	27	4	8	15	-24	-10.5	20
12	Livingston	27	1	9	17	-28	-10.6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+20	+11.8	31
2	Motherwell	14	9	4	1	+19	+11.2	31
3	Hearts	13	9	4	0	+17	+5.5	31
4	Rangers	14	9	4	1	+15	+11.7	31
5	Hibernian	14	7	5	2	+13	+5.9	26
6	Falkirk	14	5	5	4	+3	+4.1	20
7	Dundee	12	5	2	5	-2	-1.5	17
8	St Mirren	13	4	5	4	-2	+4.3	17
9	Aberdeen	12	4	4	4	+4	-4.4	16
10	Dundee United	12	3	4	5	-5	-6.5	13
11	Kilmarnock	14	3	3	8	-8	-2.3	12
12	Livingston	13	1	4	8	-9	-2.9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	14	8	2	4	+9	+4.9	26
2	Rangers	13	6	6	1	+11	-2.4	24
3	Celtic	13	7	2	4	+2	+2.6	23
4	Falkirk	13	6	1	6	-6	-1.1	19
5	Motherwell	12	3	7	2	+3	-0.4	16
6	Hibernian	13	4	4	5	-1	-3.5	16
7	Dundee United	13	3	6	4	-4	-5.3	15
8	Aberdeen	13	4	0	9	-13	-6.3	12
9	Kilmarnock	13	1	5	7	-16	-8.2	8
10	Dundee	14	1	4	9	-17	-5.8	7
11	St Mirren	13	1	3	9	-14	-3.8	6
12	Livingston	14	0	5	9	-19	-7.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.