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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Watford

T T S T U

2–3

Full-time

Arsenal

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

0,3

1,8

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 26/24 matches

Win Ø 39%

19%

58%

Points per game

0,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

46%

54%

Both score Ø 42%

46%

38%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

43% Possession 57%

13 Shots 16

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 19. · Arsenal 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	27	21	3	3	+47	66
2	Liverpool	27	19	6	2	+51	63
3	Chelsea	26	15	8	3	+35	53
4	Man United	27	13	8	6	+10	47
5	West Ham	28	13	6	9	+11	45
6	Arsenal	24	14	3	7	+11	45
7	Tottenham	25	13	3	9	+3	42
8	Wolves	27	12	4	11	+1	40
9	Southampton	27	8	11	8	-7	35
10	Crystal Palace	28	7	12	9	+1	33
11	Aston Villa	26	10	3	13	+0	33
12	Leicester	25	9	6	10	-3	33
13	Brighton	27	7	12	8	-6	33
14	Newcastle	26	6	10	10	-16	28
15	Brentford	28	7	6	15	-15	27
16	Leeds	27	5	8	14	-32	23
17	Everton	24	6	4	14	-13	22
18	Burnley	26	3	12	11	-14	21
19	Watford	26	5	4	17	-22	19
20	Norwich	27	4	5	18	-42	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	3	0	+30	36
2	Man City	13	10	1	2	+27	31
3	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+12	29
4	West Ham	14	7	3	4	+6	24
5	Man United	14	7	3	4	+5	24
6	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
7	Southampton	13	5	7	1	+8	22
8	Tottenham	12	7	1	4	+3	22
9	Leicester	13	6	3	4	+4	21
10	Crystal Palace	14	4	6	4	+5	18
11	Aston Villa	13	5	3	5	+4	18
12	Newcastle	14	4	6	4	-5	18
13	Wolves	13	5	2	6	-2	17
14	Everton	12	5	1	6	+0	16
15	Brentford	14	4	2	8	-5	14
16	Brighton	13	3	5	5	-6	14
17	Leeds	13	3	4	6	-10	13
18	Burnley	13	2	6	5	-6	12
19	Norwich	14	2	3	9	-19	9
20	Watford	13	2	1	10	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+20	35
2	Chelsea	14	9	3	2	+18	30
3	Liverpool	13	8	3	2	+21	27
4	Man United	13	6	5	2	+5	23
5	Wolves	14	7	2	5	+3	23
6	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+5	21
7	Tottenham	13	6	2	5	+0	20
8	Brighton	14	4	7	3	+0	19
9	Arsenal	11	5	1	5	-1	16
10	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	15
11	Aston Villa	13	5	0	8	-4	15
12	Brentford	14	3	4	7	-10	13
13	Southampton	14	3	4	7	-15	13
14	Watford	13	3	3	7	-3	12
15	Leicester	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Newcastle	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	Leeds	14	2	4	8	-22	10
18	Burnley	13	1	6	6	-8	9
19	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-23	8
20	Everton	12	1	3	8	-13	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.