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Taça de Portugal

Lusitânia

T S T S

2–1

Full-time

Régua

T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lusitânia Régua

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

75%

67%

Both score Ø 54%

75%

33%

Average goals

3,5

5,0

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

2,0

4,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-3,7

This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Lusitânia 39. · Régua 47. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Anadia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Maria da Fonte	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	São João Ver	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Caldas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Vila Real	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
15	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Régua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Amora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
54	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
61	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
62	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
63	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
64	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
73	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
98	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
111	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
112	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
113	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
114	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
123	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Oliveira Hospital	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Amora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
37	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Vila Real	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
67	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
5	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Régua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
28	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.