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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Wrexham

T S T S U

1–5

Full-time

Southampton

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wrexham Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

2,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 40/37 matches

Win Ø 45%

43%

46%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

57%

Both score Ø 69%

68%

70%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,28 xG 2,61

54% Possession 46%

11 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Wrexham 6. · Southampton 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	41	25	9	7	+42	+30.2	84
2	Ipswich	39	20	12	7	+29	+27.8	72
3	Millwall	39	20	9	10	+9	+5.0	69
4	Middlesbrough	38	18	11	9	+14	+22.9	65
5	Hull	38	19	8	11	+8	-20.3	65
6	Wrexham	40	17	13	10	+9	-4.3	64
7	Derby	41	18	9	14	+9	+2.8	63
8	Southampton	37	17	11	9	+19	+15.7	62
9	Norwich	41	17	7	17	+7	-2.9	58
10	Watford	41	14	15	12	+3	+4.5	57
11	Bristol City	41	16	9	16	+1	-6.3	57
12	QPR	41	16	9	16	-5	+0.2	57
13	Stoke	41	15	9	17	+3	-11.3	54
14	Preston	41	13	15	13	-4	-15.7	54
15	Swansea	41	15	9	17	-5	-5.7	54
16	Birmingham	41	14	11	16	-3	+12.2	53
17	Sheffield United	41	15	6	20	-1	+13.4	51
18	Charlton	41	12	13	16	-11	-15.0	49
19	Leicester	41	11	14	16	-9	-12.9	47
20	Blackburn	41	12	11	18	-12	+4.6	47
21	West Brom	41	11	12	18	-14	+8.9	45
22	Portsmouth	40	10	12	18	-17	-0.0	42
23	Oxford	41	9	14	18	-15	-7.5	41
24	Sheffield Weds	41	1	10	30	-57	-46.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	20	15	3	2	+26	+20.4	48
2	Ipswich	21	13	7	1	+23	+24.9	46
3	Watford	21	10	7	4	+9	+5.5	37
4	Swansea	21	10	6	5	+6	-1.5	36
5	Millwall	20	11	3	6	+6	+6.6	36
6	Southampton	18	10	5	3	+15	+11.2	35
7	Birmingham	20	9	8	3	+13	+18.4	35
8	Hull	19	10	4	5	+5	-5.0	34
9	Middlesbrough	19	9	6	4	+8	+11.8	33
10	Wrexham	20	9	6	5	+6	+7.7	33
11	Derby	21	9	6	6	+4	+4.1	33
12	Stoke	20	9	5	6	+10	+2.5	32
13	QPR	20	10	2	8	+5	+8.2	32
14	Preston	21	8	7	6	+2	-3.0	31
15	West Brom	20	7	8	5	+0	+12.0	29
16	Sheffield United	20	8	4	8	+7	+13.8	28
17	Bristol City	21	8	4	9	+2	-3.7	28
18	Charlton	20	8	4	8	-2	-0.8	28
19	Norwich	20	8	2	10	+0	+0.9	26
20	Leicester	20	7	5	8	-2	-1.3	26
21	Portsmouth	20	6	5	9	-1	+6.6	23
22	Oxford	20	5	8	7	-7	+1.8	23
23	Blackburn	21	4	8	9	-7	+5.6	20
24	Sheffield Weds	21	0	6	15	-31	-21.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	21	10	6	5	+16	+9.8	36
2	Millwall	19	9	6	4	+3	-1.5	33
3	Norwich	21	9	5	7	+7	-3.8	32
4	Middlesbrough	19	9	5	5	+6	+11.1	32
5	Hull	19	9	4	6	+3	-15.3	31
6	Wrexham	20	8	7	5	+3	-12.0	31
7	Derby	20	9	3	8	+5	-1.3	30
8	Bristol City	20	8	5	7	-1	-2.7	29
9	Southampton	19	7	6	6	+4	+4.5	27
10	Blackburn	20	8	3	9	-5	-1.0	27
11	Ipswich	18	7	5	6	+6	+2.9	26
12	QPR	21	6	7	8	-10	-8.0	25
13	Preston	20	5	8	7	-6	-12.7	23
14	Sheffield United	21	7	2	12	-8	-0.4	23
15	Stoke	21	6	4	11	-7	-13.8	22
16	Leicester	21	4	9	8	-7	-11.6	21
17	Charlton	21	4	9	8	-9	-14.3	21
18	Watford	20	4	8	8	-6	-0.9	20
19	Portsmouth	20	4	7	9	-16	-6.7	19
20	Oxford	21	4	6	11	-8	-9.3	18
21	Swansea	20	5	3	12	-11	-4.2	18
22	Birmingham	21	5	3	13	-16	-6.2	18
23	West Brom	21	4	4	13	-14	-3.1	16
24	Sheffield Weds	20	1	4	15	-26	-24.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.