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La Liga

Referee: I Diaz

Sevilla

U U T T T

2–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sevilla Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 42%

27%

57%

Points per game

1,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

57%

47%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,85 xG 0,84

32% Possession 68%

11 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sevilla 18. · Ath Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	31	26	1	4	+54	+39.6	79
2	Real Madrid	31	22	4	5	+36	+34.3	70
3	Villarreal	30	18	4	8	+19	+9.8	58
4	Ath Madrid	30	17	6	7	+20	+10.7	57
5	Betis	30	11	12	7	+7	+10.9	45
6	Celta	30	11	11	8	+7	+4.3	44
7	Sociedad	31	11	9	11	+1	-1.2	42
8	Getafe	30	12	5	13	-4	-7.6	41
9	Osasuna	30	10	8	12	-1	-4.9	38
10	Espanol	31	10	8	13	-11	-4.3	38
11	Ath Bilbao	30	11	5	14	-11	+9.0	38
12	Girona	31	9	11	11	-12	-11.4	38
13	Vallecano	30	8	11	11	-6	+3.3	35
14	Valencia	31	9	8	14	-12	+3.5	35
15	Alaves	31	8	9	14	-11	-4.0	33
16	Elche	31	7	11	13	-8	-20.6	32
17	Mallorca	30	8	7	15	-12	-17.4	31
18	Sevilla	30	8	7	15	-13	-18.0	31
19	Levante	30	6	8	16	-16	-15.6	26
20	Oviedo	30	5	9	16	-27	-20.5	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	16	0	0	+42	+26.6	48
2	Real Madrid	16	13	1	2	+24	+23.3	40
3	Ath Madrid	16	13	1	2	+21	+16.5	40
4	Villarreal	15	12	1	2	+21	+9.6	37
5	Osasuna	14	8	4	2	+9	+6.1	28
6	Elche	16	7	7	2	+9	-3.8	28
7	Sociedad	16	8	4	4	+8	+5.5	28
8	Betis	15	7	5	3	+10	+9.4	26
9	Ath Bilbao	15	8	2	5	+2	+11.5	26
10	Mallorca	15	7	4	4	+4	+0.4	25
11	Vallecano	15	5	8	2	+6	+10.2	23
12	Valencia	15	6	5	4	+3	+10.6	23
13	Girona	15	6	4	5	-4	-7.0	22
14	Getafe	15	6	3	6	+3	-2.5	21
15	Alaves	15	5	6	4	+1	+1.6	21
16	Espanol	15	6	3	6	-3	+1.2	21
17	Celta	15	4	5	6	+2	+5.5	17
18	Oviedo	15	4	5	6	-7	-9.1	17
19	Sevilla	15	4	4	7	-3	-4.9	16
20	Levante	15	3	5	7	-8	-6.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	10	1	4	+12	+13.0	31
2	Real Madrid	15	9	3	3	+12	+11.0	30
3	Celta	15	7	6	2	+5	-1.2	27
4	Villarreal	15	6	3	6	-2	+0.2	21
5	Getafe	15	6	2	7	-7	-5.1	20
6	Betis	15	4	7	4	-3	+1.4	19
7	Ath Madrid	14	4	5	5	-1	-5.8	17
8	Espanol	16	4	5	7	-8	-5.4	17
9	Girona	16	3	7	6	-8	-4.4	16
10	Sevilla	15	4	3	8	-10	-13.2	15
11	Sociedad	15	3	5	7	-7	-6.7	14
12	Levante	15	3	3	9	-8	-9.0	12
13	Alaves	16	3	3	10	-12	-5.6	12
14	Vallecano	15	3	3	9	-12	-6.8	12
15	Ath Bilbao	15	3	3	9	-13	-2.4	12
16	Valencia	16	3	3	10	-15	-7.1	12
17	Osasuna	16	2	4	10	-10	-11.1	10
18	Oviedo	15	1	4	10	-20	-11.3	7
19	Mallorca	15	1	3	11	-16	-17.8	6
20	Elche	15	0	4	11	-17	-16.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.