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Championship
Referee: E Duckworth
1–2
Full-time
Millwall
S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sheffield Weds Millwall
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
1,8
3,2
Scored
0,0
1,8
Conceded
1,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,8
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 31/30 matches
Win Ø 27%
3%
50%
Points per game
0,4
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 49%
55%
43%
Both score Ø 41%
39%
43%
Average goals
2,6
2,4
Scored
0,6
1,3
Conceded
2,0
1,1
Goal diff per game
-1,4
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,03 xG 3,04
33% Possession 67%
11 Shots 20
3 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 5
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 11
0 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sheffield Weds 24. · Millwall 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Coventry 31 17 8 6 +28 +24.6 59
2 Ipswich 30 15 9 6 +22 +24.6 54
3 Middlesbrough 28 16 6 6 +12 +9.9 54
4 Millwall 30 15 8 7 +5 +4.7 53
5 Hull 29 15 6 8 +8 -14.0 51
6 Wrexham 31 12 11 8 +5 -2.7 47
7 Preston 31 12 11 8 +4 -9.5 47
8 Bristol City 31 13 7 11 +5 +0.2 46
9 Birmingham 32 12 10 10 +4 +16.2 46
10 Southampton 30 12 9 9 +8 +13.7 45
11 Derby 31 12 9 10 +6 -3.9 45
12 Watford 31 11 11 9 +3 +5.7 44
13 QPR 31 12 8 11 -1 +1.8 44
14 Stoke 32 12 7 13 +5 -8.6 43
15 Swansea 31 12 6 13 +1 -3.6 42
16 Norwich 32 11 6 15 +0 -7.2 39
17 Sheffield United 31 12 3 16 -1 +10.9 39
18 Charlton 31 10 9 12 -8 -11.4 39
19 Leicester 32 10 8 14 -7 -13.5 38
20 West Brom 32 9 7 16 -15 +3.0 34
21 Portsmouth 29 8 9 12 -11 -3.0 33
22 Blackburn 31 8 8 15 -13 +2.9 32
23 Oxford 32 6 10 16 -16 -9.7 28
24 Sheffield Weds 31 1 8 22 -44 -31.2 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sheffield Weds Millwall
Cole McGhee 🟨
36′
40′
🟨 Casper De Norre
Half-time 0–0
Jamal Lowe 🟨
50′
1–0 J. Lowe
60′
61′
🔁 M. Langstaff
↦ B. Bannan
61′
🔁 T. Watson
↦ C. De Norre
67′
🟨 Caleb Taylor
72′
C. McGhee 2–0
own goal
J. Ndala 🔁
↦ O. Kobacki
73′
74′
M. Langstaff 2–1
F. Azeez
L. Cooper 🔁
↦ C. McGhee
75′
78′
🔁 M. Ivanovic
↦ J. Coburn
Gabriel Otegbayo 🟨
87′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Sheffield Weds

4-2-3-1
13 M. Cooper G
2 L. Palmer D
22 G. Otegbayo D
28 C. McGhee D
45 T. Adaramola D
8 S. Ingelsson M
24 J. Heskey M
17 C. McNeill M
9 J. Lowe M
19 O. Kobacki M
12 J. Yates F
Bench (9)
25 L. Stretch
16 L. Cooper
32 J. Emery
27 R. Johnson
18 M. Nakamba
37 J. Thornton
36 B. Fernandes
21 J. Ndala
11 I. Ugbo

Coach: Henrik Pedersen

Millwall

4-2-3-1
15 M. Crocombe G
4 T. Crama D
6 C. Taylor D
5 J. Cooper D
14 A. Doughty D
24 C. De Norre M
8 B. Mitchell M
11 F. Azeez M
67 B. Bannan M
10 C. Neghli M
19 J. Coburn F
Bench (9)
13 A. Patterson
3 Z. Sturge
7 T. Ballo
9 M. Ivanovic
17 M. Langstaff
18 R. Leonard
22 T. Watson
25 L. Cundle
49 D. Mazou-Sacko

Coach: Alex Neil

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
8,30
U
4,56
B ✓
1,37
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,85
U2,5
1,90
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

E Duckworth · 12 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.