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Championship

Referee: A Herczeg

Hull

S U T T T

4–2

Full-time

Derby

U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hull Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 30/33 matches

Win Ø 45%

50%

39%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

63%

48%

Both score Ø 64%

60%

67%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

0,58 xG 3,38

50% Possession 50%

9 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

7 Corners 3

19 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hull 6. · Derby 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	33	19	8	6	+32	+25.7	65
2	Millwall	32	16	8	8	+4	+5.6	56
3	Middlesbrough	30	16	7	7	+10	+10.8	55
4	Ipswich	31	15	9	7	+20	+23.1	54
5	Wrexham	33	13	12	8	+7	-0.6	51
6	Hull	30	15	6	9	+6	-13.6	51
7	Birmingham	33	13	10	10	+5	+15.9	49
8	Derby	33	13	9	11	+6	-4.8	48
9	Watford	33	12	12	9	+5	+6.5	48
10	Preston	33	12	12	9	+3	-10.5	48
11	Bristol City	33	13	8	12	+4	-0.4	47
12	QPR	33	13	8	12	-1	+1.9	47
13	Southampton	31	12	10	9	+8	+14.1	46
14	Sheffield United	33	14	3	16	+1	+11.5	45
15	Swansea	33	13	6	14	+0	-3.5	45
16	Stoke	33	12	8	13	+5	-8.5	44
17	Charlton	33	10	10	13	-10	-12.1	40
18	Norwich	33	11	6	16	-1	-6.8	39
19	Leicester	33	10	9	14	-7	-13.6	39
20	Portsmouth	32	10	9	13	-8	-0.6	39
21	Blackburn	33	10	8	15	-10	+3.3	38
22	West Brom	33	9	7	17	-17	+2.5	34
23	Oxford	33	6	11	16	-16	-11.2	29
24	Sheffield Weds	33	1	8	24	-46	-34.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	16	12	3	1	+22	+14.9	39
2	Ipswich	16	10	5	1	+18	+20.1	35
3	Watford	17	9	5	3	+9	+6.1	32
4	Birmingham	16	8	7	1	+15	+18.1	31
5	Middlesbrough	15	9	4	2	+10	+5.5	31
6	Swansea	17	9	4	4	+7	+0.5	31
7	Millwall	16	9	3	4	+4	+7.2	30
8	Wrexham	17	7	6	4	+4	+8.1	27
9	Preston	17	7	6	4	+4	-1.4	27
10	Hull	16	8	3	5	+1	-4.4	27
11	Sheffield United	16	8	2	6	+9	+12.3	26
12	Southampton	15	7	5	3	+7	+9.6	26
13	QPR	16	8	2	6	+5	+9.0	26
14	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	+5	-0.4	25
15	Charlton	16	7	4	5	+0	-0.8	25
16	West Brom	16	6	5	5	-3	+8.0	23
17	Stoke	16	6	4	6	+5	-0.5	22
18	Portsmouth	16	6	4	6	+2	+5.4	22
19	Leicester	16	6	4	6	+0	-0.7	22
20	Derby	17	5	6	6	-2	-1.3	21
21	Blackburn	17	4	5	8	-6	+4.7	17
22	Norwich	16	5	1	10	-5	-0.1	16
23	Oxford	16	3	6	7	-9	-1.4	15
24	Sheffield Weds	17	0	4	13	-27	-16.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Derby	16	8	3	5	+8	-3.6	27
2	Coventry	17	7	5	5	+10	+10.8	26
3	Millwall	16	7	5	4	+0	-1.6	26
4	Hull	14	7	3	4	+5	-9.2	24
5	Wrexham	16	6	6	4	+3	-8.6	24
6	Middlesbrough	15	7	3	5	+0	+5.3	24
7	Norwich	17	6	5	6	+4	-6.7	23
8	Stoke	17	6	4	7	+0	-8.0	22
9	Bristol City	16	6	4	6	-1	+0.1	22
10	Preston	16	5	6	5	-1	-9.0	21
11	Blackburn	16	6	3	7	-4	-1.4	21
12	QPR	17	5	6	6	-6	-7.1	21
13	Southampton	16	5	5	6	+1	+4.4	20
14	Ipswich	15	5	4	6	+2	+3.0	19
15	Sheffield United	17	6	1	10	-8	-0.7	19
16	Birmingham	17	5	3	9	-10	-2.2	18
17	Leicester	17	4	5	8	-7	-12.9	17
18	Portsmouth	16	4	5	7	-10	-6.0	17
19	Watford	16	3	7	6	-4	+0.4	16
20	Charlton	17	3	6	8	-10	-11.4	15
21	Oxford	17	3	5	9	-7	-9.8	14
22	Swansea	16	4	2	10	-7	-4.0	14
23	West Brom	17	3	2	12	-14	-5.5	11
24	Sheffield Weds	16	1	4	11	-19	-18.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.