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Championship

Referee: Farai Hallam

Preston

U T S S T

0–1

Full-time

Derby

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 39%

42%

35%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

42%

50%

Both score Ø 68%

62%

73%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,99 xG 1,76

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 10

0 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 4. · Derby 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	27	16	7	4	+29	+21.0	55
2	Ipswich	26	13	8	5	+21	+21.8	47
3	Millwall	26	13	7	6	+0	+2.9	46
4	Preston	26	11	10	5	+11	-3.6	43
5	Middlesbrough	24	12	6	6	+5	+6.7	42
6	Watford	26	11	8	7	+6	+6.3	41
7	Stoke	26	12	4	10	+9	-4.2	40
8	Wrexham	26	10	10	6	+6	-5.6	40
9	Bristol City	26	11	6	9	+9	+0.6	39
10	Hull	23	11	5	7	+3	-11.8	38
11	QPR	26	11	5	10	-1	+1.9	38
12	Leicester	27	10	7	10	-2	-9.8	37
13	Derby	26	9	8	9	+0	-6.0	35
14	Birmingham	26	9	7	10	-1	+10.1	34
15	Southampton	24	8	8	8	+4	+9.5	32
16	Sheffield United	25	10	2	13	-2	+12.3	32
17	Swansea	26	9	5	12	-6	-8.2	32
18	West Brom	27	9	4	14	-7	+4.9	31
19	Charlton	25	7	8	10	-7	-8.8	29
20	Blackburn	26	7	7	12	-9	+5.0	28
21	Portsmouth	24	6	7	11	-14	-7.7	25
22	Norwich	26	6	6	14	-11	-8.8	24
23	Oxford	25	5	7	13	-10	-7.1	22
24	Sheffield Weds	25	1	8	16	-33	-21.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	13	10	2	1	+19	+10.6	32
2	Ipswich	14	9	4	1	+16	+18.1	31
3	Watford	14	8	4	2	+9	+6.9	28
4	Birmingham	13	7	5	1	+14	+14.5	26
5	Millwall	13	8	2	3	+2	+4.3	26
6	Middlesbrough	12	7	3	2	+5	+1.7	24
7	QPR	13	7	2	4	+7	+7.5	23
8	Preston	13	6	5	2	+7	+0.6	23
9	Wrexham	13	6	5	2	+5	+4.6	23
10	Hull	12	7	2	3	+3	-3.2	23
11	Leicester	13	6	4	3	+4	+1.4	22
12	West Brom	13	6	4	3	+4	+7.9	22
13	Bristol City	14	6	3	5	+8	+0.2	21
14	Swansea	13	6	3	4	+0	-2.0	21
15	Stoke	12	6	2	4	+8	+0.3	20
16	Southampton	11	5	4	2	+6	+7.0	19
17	Charlton	11	5	3	3	+1	-2.2	18
18	Portsmouth	13	5	3	5	+0	+1.5	18
19	Sheffield United	12	5	2	5	+5	+11.8	17
20	Derby	14	4	5	5	-3	+0.2	17
21	Oxford	12	3	4	5	-4	+0.2	13
22	Blackburn	13	2	4	7	-7	+4.8	10
23	Norwich	13	3	1	9	-7	-1.2	10
24	Sheffield Weds	13	0	4	9	-22	-9.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	14	6	5	3	+10	+10.4	23
2	Preston	13	5	5	3	+4	-4.2	20
3	Stoke	14	6	2	6	+1	-4.5	20
4	Millwall	13	5	5	3	-2	-1.3	20
5	Derby	12	5	3	4	+3	-6.2	18
6	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+1	+0.4	18
7	Middlesbrough	12	5	3	4	+0	+4.9	18
8	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	-2	+0.3	18
9	Wrexham	13	4	5	4	+1	-10.2	17
10	Ipswich	12	4	4	4	+5	+3.7	16
11	Hull	11	4	3	4	+0	-8.6	15
12	Leicester	14	4	3	7	-6	-11.1	15
13	Sheffield United	13	5	0	8	-7	+0.5	15
14	QPR	13	4	3	6	-8	-5.6	15
15	Norwich	13	3	5	5	-4	-7.5	14
16	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-2	+2.5	13
17	Watford	12	3	4	5	-3	-0.6	13
18	Swansea	13	3	2	8	-6	-6.1	11
19	Charlton	14	2	5	7	-8	-6.6	11
20	Oxford	13	2	3	8	-6	-7.3	9
21	West Brom	14	3	0	11	-11	-3.0	9
22	Birmingham	13	2	2	9	-15	-4.4	8
23	Sheffield Weds	12	1	4	7	-11	-12.4	7
24	Portsmouth	11	1	4	6	-14	-9.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.